MovieChat Forums > Ant-Man and the Wasp (2018) Discussion > Scott Mendelson says there's a very good...

Scott Mendelson says there's a very good chance this makes LESS than AM1...


domestically.

Oh boy.

It's not a Solo-level disaster, though. Even though it's likely it won't match Solo domestically(who saw that coming?), it could be saved by overseas business that isn't as catastrophic as Solo's.

Stay tuned, guys. This is getting REALLY interesting!

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Ummm...bill...did you become a ghost?

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

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Once again...billbrown?


LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

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Queenie oh Queenie, where ar't thou?

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Yes...I'm here? Anything change?

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Deadpool 2 underperforming compared to Deadpool 1.
JWFK underperforming compared to JW.
AM&TW matching AM performance for domestic total.
Incredibles 2 headed for $1 Billion and still climbing the Domestic chart (#9 at $572 Million)
Billbrown crowed but you didn't respond, retort or rebut.
Black Panther still trucking along well past WW's domestic total ($699 to $412 Million respectively).
Solo remains Fresh on Rottentomatoes.
AIW will never match BP's domestic total.
Pacific Rim wasn't even CLOSE to being a "Crowd Pleaser".
Moana did ($248 and $643) but Coco did ($209 nd $807). Disney will take those numbers.

Scott Mendelson hasn't posted a modified estimate and or updated estimated for AM&TW.

No, nothing changed. SSDD. (Same Stuff, Different Day)

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Ant-Man isn't a very appealing franchise tbh.

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Even though it's likely it won't match Solo domestically(who saw that coming?), it could be saved by overseas business that isn't as catastrophic as Solo's.
From the Mendelson article he gave a pretty full throated and detailed perspective for why he feels AM&TW might not exceed the domestic results that Ant- Man achieved. SM felt that AM over performed due to a lack of competition and AM&TW might be saddled with an under performing tag because of the wealth of counter programming competition that will be there for the next 16 weeks or so.

No one is suggesting that AM&TW is being poorly received or critically is inferior just that it will be seeing some rather stiff competition. Did Disney/marvel make a mistake in scheduling? Following on the heels of BP and A:IW I think AM&TW came out at the right time. But SM's analysis seems reasonable and his summary suggested that Disney is in a pretty good place with the combined results of their films for 2018 regardless of the domestic results.



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What competing with Marvel in the next three weeks? Mainly Mission Improbable.

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Incredibles 2 came to my mind.

Also, looking into the foreign markets....you know what's keeping it from opening in a lot of European markets for a while? The World Cup.

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I think I said this before, but what makes that kid on South Park with diabetes an expert on box office projections?

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Nice one.

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Thanks. Wanna get hiiiiiiigh?

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How times have changed, people talk more about the box office than the actually movie

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How times have changed, people talk more about the box office than the actually movie.
I agree with that statement and it is so easy to talk about both with there being more than just a causal relationship between the movie and it's box office.

I haven't seen AM&TW as of yet because it has this feel of being outside of the MCU main storyline and members of my family aren't invested enough to want to see the movie now. It is also about summer and doing so many other things away from Movie Theaters.

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It’s actually a fun movie. It does have small beats tying to the bigger narrative, but who cares? It was a good time at the movies.

Already preordered on iTunes

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It's the DC crowd mostly, who are weirdly obsessed with how much the Marvel movies make. I've gotten into the discussion this time around because one of them made a bet.

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Hotel Transylvania 3 just topped Antman and The Wasp (62% drop) from its opening this week, along with Incredibles 2 (42.9% drop) and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom (45.8% drop).

Any thoughts on that, QueenFanUSA?

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AM2 isn't holding well and other movies are?

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It's also not that bad either. AM 2 should hopefully recover in the next few weeks since it's about akin to Homecoming at the moment. At least it can't be said that both JW 2 and Incredibles 2 are struggling at the moment.

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Don't most sequels earn less than the first film?

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Not really. Most sequels earn more. It's usually 3rd and 4th installments that produce diminishing results.

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Live and learn. I always figure the sequels follow the coat tails of the original to earn a few extra bucks.

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AM made $180m. AMW is at $150 after two weeks and will easily make $30m more. I predict $190m+ domestic.
Still 10 Euro markets to go starting this weekend. I won't try to predict that.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=ant-manandthewasp.htm

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190 million domestic will be a disappointment no ifs, ands or buts about it.

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So Ant Man was a bigger disappointment at $180m?

I'll be back Sun morn with a better projection. Prepare to be disappointed!

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This one cost 30-40 million more to produce.

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Right, the whole “hidden marketing” stuff? Once again, you need to provide sources.

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No...the production budget is widely reported to be over 160 million dollars.

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Okay, link a few sources that this movie had a budget of 210-220 million.

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I never said it had a budget that big!

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Satan said it was 180 mil and your exact words were “this one cost 30-40 million more to produce”. 180+ 30 = 210. 180 + 40 = 220.

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He was talking about Ant-Man's domestic gross.

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Right. It made 180 million and you claimed this one cost 30-40 million more than that to produce.

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Why? In an overcrowded release schedule, its going to beat Ant-Man domestically which you were adamant it wouldn't do, clinging onto the notion that Scott Mendelson is some kind of Box Office genius, which patently, he isn't.

I checked for your "Jurassic World Fallen Kingdom is a dissapointment" thread but couldnt find it, after all, its not going to match JW domestically or internationally, virtually similar increase in budget to AMATW, and is going to be just under $400million short of its predecessor.

AMATW is likely going to exceed Ant-Man domestically and internationally, but somehow its a "disappointment"?

Did AMATW lose $400million? WTF are you smoking?

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Domestic is now $165m. Weekly decline is only 45%, so I predict $35m more and $200m total.

Global is $353m.

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353 million? Isn't that higher than Solo?

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No, Solo is at $385million, but just on domestic numbers, AMATW will sail past by next weekend, and then next week it opens in all its remaining major European markets like the UK and also China, which delivered over $100million for the previous movie.

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Thanks.

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Just as I called it, AMATW has now beaten Solo and still has big markets to open in next week.

Oh, and as for the claim that this movie wouldnt beat Ant-Man.......it just did, and still has enough in the tank domestically to get over $200million.

So much for Scott Mendelson eh?

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