box office this beast
Opening wend 200m
Domestic - 600m
Overseas - 1.4b
Total - 2b
I think you are right on track. The only unknown is the foreign market.
Maybe around $2.2b?
MovieChat Forums > Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) Discussion > box office this beast
If NWH can crack 1.5b (so far) Avatar2 could easily take home 2b
sharepost covid, maybe 1b?
shareYou are comparing 2 vastly different things. This will be lucky to break a billion worldwide. I'm guessing that's right about where it ends up. The 3rd will do even worse, unless part 2 is better than the original.
sharesome said same about NWH
shareExcept NWH is coming from an IP with 60+ years of history, 7 prior successful movies, multiple hugely popular video games, animated series and an attachment to the MCU, which is the biggest box office franchise of all time. Spider-man has proven to be timeless. Avatar might be, but it definitely doesn't have the following that SM does. That's why Avatar needs to improve upon it's predecessor or it will fail, because it's the only bar it can be measured against.
shareand avatar is coming from the biggest movie of all time
shareThe property has not held up. No toys, video games, action figures, etc, not in years. The technology made this movie a success, not the story or fandom. It also says something that this movie required multiple theatrical releases to be the biggest movie of all time.
shareThis didn't age very well. lol
shareSure it did. It was speculation, not statement of fact. That's why it's "speculative". The property not holding mass appeal since the first release can't be denied. This had a lot going for it, most notable was the timing of release and lack of a genre competitor until next month that couldn't have been predicted at the time. Obviously that information would have had a bearing on results.
shareEvery big movie plots a course in the same way, with the same considerations (competition, holidays, etc), so there's nothing novel with the timing of its release. It could surely be predicted that no film was going head-to-head with this one out of the gate, and certainly not from Disney. No matter what the angle, it doesn't account for missing by over a billion dollars. You and many others here completely underestimate Cameron's formula. Maybe after three 2bil features in a row, years and years apart, the last of the doubters will come around to the idea that betting against him is a losing bet. A James Cameron joint is an event.
sharewhatever it had going for it, it's still the case that people actually went to see it instead of something else, or instead of staying home.
& they must have told other people that it was something worth seeing, since it's had great holds. & presumably lots of return visits. i've seen it 3 times myself, & will probably go at least one more time for a hfr viewing.
you can spend a lot of money to promote something, & probably get a big opening weekend.
but if people think it stinks, they're not gonna go again & they're not gonna tell people to see it.
whatever anyone wants to say about the movie, & i think there's lots to criticize in it, it's really unlike any other movie i've seen, & i absolutely think everyone should see it at least once in hfr 3d.
I liked it and thought it was a big improvement over the first. I only based my prediction on the information available at the time. However, sometimes only OK movies perform exceedingly well, just based on release time and the particular year of release, which was part of this success, but it undeniably is a good product. Realistically though, if this were released amongst a flood of summer blockbusters, it probably wouldn't put up anywhere near these numbers. This gets 2 months of no real competition, which has really worked in its favor.
sharethat's true, but as a counter point i'd bring up top gun maverick & the way that movie ran & ran through the summer. so it can happen.
that became another movie where people really spread the word & said it was something special, & it had a great run through the summer, where it faced releases from that dinosaur movie, thor, & other big films.
that said, avatar is a different matter because it relies on those specialty screens, so it would probably suffer in a way tgm didn't in losing those imax/premium screens.
& your point is a good one in general, in that it's often the case that christmas releases will have long tails through the dry jan/feb period.
Top Gun got a lot of the same break, but still had to go against some competition. But due to the covid trickle down, there was an unprecedented low number of movies released in theaters last year. It helped a lot that several blockbusters last summer were real turds, like thor 3 and jurassic park. I liked Top Gun 2, but not sure it lives up to it's numbers any other year, but who knows.
share"This will be lucky to break a billion worldwide. I'm guessing that's right about where it ends up."
Thats a statement.
Anyone can speculate. I can speculate that Antman 3 will make $57. But I guess when it makes a ton of money I can just say I was speculating and that the timing of the release and lack of genre competitor added to the box office results.
It was a prediction. And a bad one that he's trying to explain away, as though Avatar 2 lucked out to an extra billion through circumstance, rather than that they simply applied the typical big tent pole holiday release strategy. Avatar 2 was the big dog in the yard that no one dare go up against, just like Spider-man: NWH in '21, all the recent Star Wars sequels, Aquaman, etc, -- all mid-Dec releases. They mark their territory and the competition sticks to the summer, b/c the competition would absorb more damage than they'd inflict if they did otherwise.
share🤣 You cut and paste it, so you must have seen it, but you are ignoring that I literally used the phrase "I'm guessing". Also, saying Antman 3 doesn't have any genre competition following it simply wouldn't be true, where as my claim about it with Avatar 2 is. 65 comes out 3 weeks later, and shazam 2 comes out 4 weeks later. Keep trying.
share'AVATAR: THE WAY OF WATER’ is tracking to earn $525M+ in the film’s worldwide box office opening weekend.
https://deadline.com/2022/12/avatar-the-way-of-water-box-office-preview-prediction-1235197950/
One can't overestimate the stupidity of the public, so the sky's the limit on this one. Look what a Top Gun sequel did!
share