MovieChat Forums > On the Beach (2000) Discussion > too bad it's unscientific propaganda

too bad it's unscientific propaganda


They did a good job with this film, but it's too bad that the portrayal of nuclear war is so far from accurate. A few years back I did a paper on the real, scientific results of nuclear war and it just isn't the all-human-life- killing thing that we hear about. At the peak of the arms race (or, obviously, today) the US and Soviet Union, working together, would be incapable of ensuring the death of everyone in Texas. Worldwide radiation is a big crock, and even nuclear winter is far from certain.

I'm not gung-ho about nuclear war (who is?). I just really, really don't like propaganda, no matter how well-intentioned. Back when nuclear disarmament was in vouge the anti-nuke crowd deliberately spread a lot of disinformation in an attempt to scare people onto their side. Misinformation pisses me off. I'm a big supporter of free speech, so I'm using my right to free speech to combat their abuse of it. I could go on about this, but don't want to be boring. If anyone is interested in more facts, I can post more.

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that the book on which this film was based was written in 1957. At that time people were told to hide under their kitchen tables for protection in case of a nuclear strike... - so it's kind of a child of its time.
One could argue that the writer could have modernised the scientific background like they did with the technology (notebooks, e-mail, etc.). BUT - that would take out the linchpin of the story: Australia is doomed because the worldwide radiation is catching up with them.

So, with this film, it is like with all films: Suspension of disbelief. For me it works, even if it's not scientifically accurate.
Why? Having grown up in an area, that would have been a main battlefield (according to official strategies) in case of confrontation between the Big Two, I am pretty sure I wouldn't have survived any confrontation involving nukes. So nuclear war was a real (if perhaps not imminent) danger in my life.

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That's a good response and a good attitude about the movie.

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Suspension of disbelief? Just say level of "verisimilitude". People will think you paid attention in English Lit class.

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Why should I? I never took English Lit. Not every user of these boards is a native speaker, so sometime us furriners will use words or phrases that are not correct in context (but I don't think I was off here). I think "suspension of disbelief" describes perfectly what every one of us does when going to the movies: Saying to oneself "This is a film, not reality", and then waiting if the filmmakers can make us believe the story.

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If you really want to put off the "I'm a film student and my opinion of this film trumps yours because..." crowd, talking over their heads never hurts.

Look at it this way: you learned a nifty lit. term. Go forth and astound your friends.

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"Suspension of disbelief" is exactly the right phrase. We suspend disbelief all the time when we watch movies.

Verisimilitude is the appearance of truth. But it applies more to the "pigs can't fly" scenarios.

Wish i could speak a foreign language with as much subtlety as you obviously do.

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[deleted]

My, I am sorry to see this part of the thread (even looking in from the next decade).

That phrase is a common one, not something one would add in expectation of saying something really new. People use it all the time about TV shows and books.

See the Wikipedia page on it and some others.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspension_of_disbelief

http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/suspension-of-disbelief.html

http://www.mediacollege.com/glossary/s/suspension-of-disbelief.html

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No, the phrase "suspension of disbelief" means the inverse of "verisimilitude." The former is the effort of the audience member, the latter comes from the efforts of the dramatist. If you paid attention in English Lit, you still failed to understand it.

The best diplomat I know is a fully charged phaser bank.

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"That's a good response and a good attitude about the movie."

Agreed - UNTIL you get into the Australian remake of the movie and the bending of the plot to fit into here-and-now geopolitical debates.

My argument with the remake is that the film-makers seemed to walk away from Shute's purposeful uncertainty as to WHO started World War 3 and laid it all at the feet of the United States. What happens if Australia's caught downwind of India or the Philliipines or Indonesia when China hits THEM in a fight where the US doesn't have a stake? Going to make THAT our fault, too?

A brawl over (say) who owns the Spratly or Paracel Islands is a LOT more probable these days than one over Taiwan, all things considered - both of those island chains sit over oil that China NEEDS - if they'll pay $130/barrel for crude oil now, think they wouldn't drop a nuke or two - or ten - to get a supply of their very own?

But in general, it's a little pointless to argue over whether or not worldwide nuclear fallout would whack out mankind after one large exchange - Shute framed his novel as a morality play, about pressing on in the face of futility and doom, and about honor and love in the teeth of all that nasty Fate can throw at them.

Taken that way and not as a documentary, it's a classic film and wlll remain so forever. I read the novel as a kid, saw the first movie not long after that, and the second movie while recovering from a bout of cancer treatment. That second movie was a bit shaking while I was taking medications not that much less deadly than the "blue pills" people were hoarding until the end.

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The motivation behind Nevil Shute's 1957 novel is that in the 1950s there was a widespread belief across the Southern Hemisphere that the nations south of the equator would survive a nuclear war because such a war would only involve countries in the Northern Hemisphere -- the US, USSR, UK, France, etc., with all targets of any consequence in Europe, Asia and North America.

The assumption was that, since there were no strategic targets in, and therefore no reason for anyone to bomb, the Southern Hemisphere, whatever happened in the north, the south would be spared most if not all effects of atomic warfare. (You can also see this attitude in Akira Kurosawa's 1955 film I Live in Fear.)

Shute wrote "On the Beach" in part to disabuse people of the notion that one part of the Earth would be spared any effects of a war that destroyed the other half, and he succeeded -- maybe too well. The book and films may require some suspension of disbelief, as do all works of fiction, but that's really a side issue. At least they woke people up to the folly and unpredictability of nuclear war -- which at the time many military people and even scientists considered "winnable", and therefore a real "strategic" option.

(Shute also was vastly more realistic than either the 1959 film or the 2000 made-for-TV movie in one respect, in that in the book the entire Southern Hemisphere was still intact, not just Australia, which is a physical impossibility -- what, New Zealand is wiped out but Australia remains? It also took about two years for the radioactive fallout to permeate the entire south, not just a few months as in both movie versions, which is more "scientifically" accurate.)

In Shute's tale, all life was ultimately wiped out. Would this happen in a real nuclear war? Probably not. Life is resilient, and all the radioactivity released by all the bombs in the world would almost certainly not be enough to actually kill everything off. The OP is probably right about that.

But the real issue is, who wants to find out? Even if life did survive, what would be left of civilization, let alone of the planet that sustains all life?

The OP, with his claims to having done a paper on the subject -- as if that renders him an expert and answers all questions -- graciously allows, "I am not gung-ho about nuclear war (who is?)." That's not exactly a firm renunciation of the idea, and otherwise he seems pretty unconcerned about the possible consequences of a war, consequences he so easily discounts or dismisses. (Saying, for example, that "Worldwide radiation is a big crock," which actually it isn't: even a "limited" atomic war would inevitably result in higher levels of radioactivity across the planet and its atmosphere, even if these aren't lethal; just as ash from a volcanic eruption permeates the entire atmosphere, or a tidal wave emanating from one source rolls around all the world's oceans. The effects might vary, be uneven, they may even be virtually inconsequential in some areas, but they're present, nevertheless.)

In any case, a paper is not proof; the only irrefutable means of proving any hypothesis about nuclear war is to have one. Any takers?

And this is a problem: the more people believe that the results of a worldwide nuclear war wouldn't be as dire as wiping out all life on Earth, or that the real consequences are somehow manageable, perhaps inconvenient but not truly destructive of civilization, the likelier we are to fall into the trap of a major nuclear conflict. This was in fact a governing mind-set of many leaders in the 50s and 60s. We might well experience a limited nuclear attack anyway, with terrorist groups getting close to obtaining the components of a nuclear weapon. This wouldn't be a world war but bad enough -- then multiply such a horror a thousandfold, add to it no outside help available, and imagine what it would be like.

It's fair to criticize On the Beach's central plot proposal -- that all life is destroyed by an atomic war -- as an unlikely or excessive notion. I actually agree that such a thing would almost certainly not result. But making a big issue of this misses the point of the book and films, which is that nuclear warfare in any form has consequences for everyone -- that there is no such thing as a "clean" or "limited" war, that its consequences are not predictable, and that life, even if it continues, will go on under very different and far more difficult circumstances, from which it might take centuries to recover...if it recovers at all.

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Er... America alone has enough nukes to reduce the planet to ashes many times over. The threat of atomic radiation is very real, and so is fallout that moves along with the air currents. Not to mention that the nuclear damage to all the ecosystems would be utterly disasterous to anything that likes living.

One atomic bomb, merely childs play by todays standard, wiped out Hiroshima and continued killing for decades. Even to this day, many mutations, often fatal, still show up in that region.

Now considering our current weapons are over ten times as powerful and contain the potency for far more weak radioactive force, I'd say yes, we'd all die if, in the odd chance we don't reduce the planet to plasma from a nuclear war, some people are left alive.

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The earth would have to collide with the moon to destoy it.

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> Er... America alone has enough nukes to reduce the planet to ashes many times over. The threat of atomic radiation is very real, and so is fallout that moves along with the air currents. Not to mention that the nuclear damage to all the ecosystems would be utterly disasterous to anything that likes living.
> One atomic bomb, merely childs play by todays standard, wiped out Hiroshima and continued killing for decades. Even to this day, many mutations, often fatal, still show up in that region.

LOL, so filled with errors it's barely worth fisking, but for the humor value.

Horrible as nuclear war's results would be, MOST WERE TARGETTED AT SPECIFIC THINGS, each multiple times -- as such, while civilization in specific areas would be wiped out (and other areas seriously diminished by the interdependency of the world economy on that regions' production) much of the world -- especially that which HAS NOT developed already into a "moderd economy" would not be tremendously affected.

Yes, there would be radiation around the world but radiation is a boogeyman which has been so overblown as to be laughable.

Look at Chernobyl -- REALLY *LOOK*. The area was covered by a massive plume of radioactive CARBON -- you know, the stuff your own bodies uses *directly* as a major component of its internal working parts? There are thousands and thousands of people still living in the 50-mile swath of it initial plume, and, other than those who died quickly, most are at notable but not MASSIVE risk of death-by-cancer -- sorta like those on the crew of the 50s "Genghis Kahn" movie many of whom died of cancer 20-40 years later. Not nice, but, if I told you you were going to die in 20-40 years, would you suddenly freak and run around gibbering? No, you wouldn't -- because that would mean that most would STILL live longer than most people did 100 years ago.

As a matter of fact, the real estimates are that STRESS and FEAR are causing more physiological harm to Chernobylites than the actual radiation.

Despite Tanivein's silly claim, the incident of "mutation" at both Chernoby AND Hiroshima/Nagasaki is small and barely noticeable (by all means, Tanuvein, show us a REPUTABLE source for that claim -- a Soviet/Russian/Ukranian official report, an international atomic agency report, anything REPUTABLE -- and no, grandiose claims by Greenpeace or its self-serving offshoots are NOT Reputable by themselves unless they are quoting some other more reputable agency -- **with verifiable sources** for its quotations).

I'm not going to say take my word for it, go search for info yourselves, that's what the Internet is good for -- just use sense in listening to whom is speaking. You can't trust Greenpeace and its ilk -- they have become a multibillion dollar organization with their own agenda and issues to push. Look for published, peer-reviewed reports and journalistic rehashings of same, you'll get much closer to the truth.

> to all the ecosystems would be utterly disasterous to anything that likes living
WAAAAY Overblown.Again, Chernobyl's ecosystem has hardly been disrupted. Duh. QED.

> in the odd chance we don't reduce the planet to plasma from a nuclear war
Oh, Jeez, can you BE any *more* ridiculous? "Reduce the planet to plasma"? You REALLY, REALLY don't grasp just how trivial and miniscule the real power of humans, despite our technology, really is, do you?

Did you learn NOTHING from Katrina, which, for at least a month, brought an entire *region* of inarguably the most powerful nation on the planet to its knees and had ripple effects on that nation for months and months? That was *one* "tiny little hurricane".

The power necessary to reduce the Earth to "plasma" (as though you had ANY clue what that actually was) is not only beyond our capacity, but beyond our current power by many **orders of magnitude** -- I mean, get a grip: It took GOD a full day to go the opposite direction. We ain't GOD. We're not even gods (small-g).

Tell the truth: You watched "The Core" and actually believed it might happen, didn't you? You didn't grasp why everyone else was absolutely laughing their asses off at its absurd premise -- right?

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You are correct in your assumptions that if a nuclear war between US/Soviet blocks did occur it would not destroy all life, it breaks down into something like this.

This is based on deductions that I have made over several years of research from many different sources, hard numbers are hard to find because most of these figures are still classified by both sides

(We are assuming the use of high yield hydrogen MIRVs both land and sea launched with 100% hit probability, actual hit probability is somewhere in the 90% range for US weapons and 75-80% for the USSR)

(We will also be assuming a simultaneous general exchange without limitations on civilian targets, this would negate having to factor in first strike and retaliation ratios while allowing for maximum civilian casualties over a wide area.)

Deaths from actual blasts in urban and military centers.

NATO 30-50 Million, WP(Warsaw Pact) 20-35 Million, Total 50-85 Million dead in first 6 hours. (WP deaths are usually lower to to lower urban population density.)

Deaths from short term radioactive fallout (6 months).

Nato 20-30 Million, WP 15-20 Million, 3rd World 5-10 Million, Total 90-145 Million in 6 months


Deaths related to long term radioactive fallout and breakdown of essential infrastructure (5 Years). (There is a huge disparity in numbers here due to the complexities of trying to calculate a sudden collapse of the global economy).

NATO 150-300 Million, WP 100-200 Million, 3rd World 100-300 Million, Total 440-945 Million in 5 years.

If you were to add a general exchange with China and nuclear powers in the middle east those numbers would probably double due to the extremely high population densities of those regions and the "dirtier" warheads used by less advanced powers.

So that leaves about 4 billion people left to pick up the pieces. Mostly in Africa and South America (sorry Aussies, you guys would get hit too)

So while it wouldn't wipe out humanity, it would kill more people in 5 years than in every war combined in the entirety of human history. It would leave basically every major population center in NA, Europe, and Northern Asia un inhabitable for about 75 years and take civilization back about 250 years. Further mutations and shortened lifespans due to radioactivity would effect billions all across the world, though it would not be fatal in the near term. Ecological damage would be moderate, but would actually recover at a faster pace due to the absence of people and industry retuning much of the forests to NA and Eurasia.

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>The power necessary to reduce the Earth to "plasma" (as though you had ANY clue what that actually was) is not only beyond our capacity, but beyond our current power by many **orders of magnitude** -- I mean, get a grip: It took GOD a full day to go the opposite direction. We ain't GOD. We're not even gods (small-g).

Unlike God, nuclear weapons are real. If you're going to bring fictional characters into this discussion then I might remind you of what the Emperor and his Death Star did to Alderaan. :)

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A nuclear war would not kill everybody. It would probably not even wipe out civilization - some places would just not be nuked.

If they decided to just nuke everything, not only the country that was nuking them, then it would still not kill everyone. No matter how you spread the nukes out it would not be enough. If anything, we should build even more nukes.

That last line was a joke, but it really wouldn't wipe out all life on earth.


These cartoons are truly bizarre and frightening!
http://www.lungsfilms.cjb.net/

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Being a dues paying member of the Atlanta Science Fiction Society (or Association, whatever we are) and this being a science fiction film, I think that the whole "reduced to plasma" talk is due in part to SF films obliterating planets for the past few decades. Military objectives are just to neutralize targets, not waste energy on making everything go boom. Such would be an amazing waste of energy/resources.
As previously mentioned, radiation increses risk, it does not prove 100% fatal except in very high exposure cases. Evidence would be the vast numbers of first hand accounts of both nuclear attacks. In the brief clips of injured people from the blasts shone on tv at the anniversary each year, there are several teribly injured folk pixctired. I watched a documentary within the past five years in which these very individuals were interviewed. They were all alive as of a few years ago. I recall one had to have benign turmors removed from his skin every few years, but had gone on to live a long life.
The toal extermination of life being discredited, that hardly means life would be as the first world currently knows it. Electronics in most of the high tech countries would be fried, and lots of the techies who keep things running would be toast. The term "quality of life" probably has more relevance than anything else. When such a term is used the russian leader who said "the living will envy the dead" might have a good point. Talk about a challenged generation...This does not mean civilization would end, but advanced technological society would be smaller and it would take a while to repopulate a number of areas, plus there would be high intensity target areas one would not wish to live in for a long time.
I would like to point out that for a number of years, there has been a thriving illegal opium growing business in the Chernobyl area. This results in addicts in nearby cities like Kiev having heroin addictions and having radiation sickness due to injected radioactive opium. Talk about poor decision making.
Speaking from the perspective of living in a 30/30/20 zone in the USmost of my life ie 30% killed outright 30% killed due to aftereffects 20% okay, should there be a major US vs Russian nuclear exchange.


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http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa009.html, "The Social and Economic Analysis of Nuclear War" by Simon Katz and Sima Osdoby for the Cato Institute is perhaps the most recent and up-to-date discussion of the post-nuclear environment minus the hand-wringing and emotional tumult surrounding the issue.

David Martin, a peace activist and Australian researcher on stratospheric studies, has devoted considerable time to studying the actual (as opposed to the generally supposed) effects of a nuclear war on the environment in "The Global Health Effects of Nuclear War" http://www.uow.edu.au/arts/sts/bmartin/pubs/82cab/

Dr. Martin does much to undo the work of "On The Beach," which assumed the nuclear arsenals of one or both sides would be cobalt-jacketed, something which turns out not to be the case for our weapons. Whether it is true of the Russian or Chinese arsenals is conjectural, of course. Even with jacketing, Nevil Shute's estimates of how comprehensively the Earth would be covered by radiation are drawn into serious question by his fellow Australian Martin's study.

Since it would take between 15 and 20 years for cobalt-60 from cobalt-jacketed warheads to decay down to minimally bearable levels, one might think that it would take a real maniac to jacket a nuke with cobalt... which narrows the field of suspects down to North Korea, Iran, possibly Saudi Arabia if there's anything to the rumors that the Saudis' financial aid to the Pakistani nuclear program involved a quid pro quo - some of the resulting nukes in exchange.

I see nothing implausible about a fanatical, ecologically illiterate cabal in charge of one of the above named countries detonating cobalt-jacketed nuclear devices on freighters located upwind of population centers in, say, Israel and the US in order to exterminate a hated enemy, regardless of the probable retaliation. It would require a ship, not a missile, because the amount of cobalt-59 required to jacket a nuclear warhead for massive radiological deaths runs into the tons.

Instead of acheiving world-wide acceptance for their sect, a group which had demonstrated its willingness to amputate the planetary ecology for purely hateful motives would literally be sowing the wind and reaping the whirlwind for themselves. (Of course, Shute's point remains - "And what IS an adequate motive for amputating the planetary ecology?")

However, Nevil Shute originally was writing both a cautionary tale and a moral story which reduced the alternatives in the nuclear age to peace or annihilation for mankind. Much of "On the Beach"'s dramatic power would have been lost had Shute's feet been held to the fire on the technical details. I understand that, and I believe that most contemporary viewers do as well.

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So you wrote a report in school and that makes you some kind of authority of the subject of nuclear war?

Too bad your info was incorrect. Next time you should check your facts.

If you did any serious research on the megatonnage of nuclear weapons present during the later years of the cold war, you would have a greater understanding of the amount of damage that would occur in a complete exchange by the two Super Powers.

http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/effects.htm


Next time, I suggest you know more about a subject before prattling on about it being "propaganda".

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I'm a trained radiological monitor. I've studied the specific problem of fallout radiation after a large-scale nuclear exchange half my life. And I've supplemented government training with laboratory and classroom courses in college at a major university nuclear science center.

So yes, compared to you, I AM an authority on the post-nuclear environment. The Louisiana Department of Emergency Preparedness certified me as such after I completed formal training as a radiological monitor, something I venture to say from your ignorant response, you have not done.

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At the peak of the arms race (or, obviously, today) the US and Soviet Union, working together, would be incapable of ensuring the death of everyone in Texas. Worldwide radiation is a big crock, and even nuclear winter is far from certain

Uh...what?
What are you talking about?
What are you smoking?
Where did you get your information?

The U.S. by itself, using conventional weapons would have a field day with the State of Texas. The major cities alone would be flattened by heavy bomber strikes using dumb bombs, no need to use precision munitions. The casualties would be appalling.
And that's just a few squadrons of heavy bombers.
The US Navy all by itself has enough nuclear warheads to turn Texas into a glowing sheet of glass.

A hint: Think First THEN Post!


For England, for home, and for the prize!

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Propaganda?

The good old U. s. of A. conducted thousands (yes, thousands) of atomic tests over the years, both above ground and below ground, as well as on islands and in the middle of the ocean. It's a well known fact that the cumulative effects of all that testing has affected millions of people across the world, causing cancer, cell mutation, all types of horrible things to people that the US was saying it was 'protecting' by having these weapons in the first place.

Take a look at what happened with chernobyl in the 80's. That place is still a huge mess, and it will be for thousands of years. Can you imagine if all the nuclear weapon possesing countries lost it and nuked the world? The firestorms alone would kill billions, never mind the diseases, famines, plagues....

Someday, if you really want to see the kind of destruction to expect, if on a very minor scale, someday look up what happened to the city of Dresden, Germany one morning during World War Two. Our beloved country bombed the hell out of it, and the raging inferno killed thouands.

We should all be so lucky if it were only 'propaganda.

Maybe i'd be able to sleep a little easier.

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Interesting that you should mention Chernobyl. I was in grade 12 that year, in Northern Germany, and we had a field trip on April 30, 1986 (four days after the fact). We thought of taking a Geiger counter along, but didn't in the end (probably calibration problems). But we did measurements afterwards, and the radiation was there, by way of Russia, Finland and the Baltic Sea... No way to avoid it.

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Take a look at what happened with chernobyl in the 80's. That place is still a huge mess, and it will be for thousands of years.


Ironically enough, the flora and fauna around Chernobyl are thriving like no other place on Earth. It's like the most perfect wildlife refuge on the planet.
All that had to be done to achieve that was remove humans from the equation.

Granted, if a human being even looks cross-eyed in the general direction of Chernobyl, they're liable to glow in the dark and drop dead from radiation poisoning in about 0.5 seconds, but that's entirely beside the point

For England, for home, and for the prize!

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if a human being even looks cross-eyed in the general direction of Chernobyl, they're liable to glow in the dark and drop dead from radiation poisoning in about 0.5 seconds
Well, not exactly, but thanks for the laugh!
There is a website out there, by a russian photographer and motorbiker named "Elena". She has made a number of trips to Chernobyl's so-called death zone, and set up a website with a reportage about them (http://www.kiddofspeed.com). Heartbreaking.
For England, for home, and for the prize!
Seems like we are watching the same films, eh? One of the best seafaring films out there.

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Well, not exactly, but thanks for the laugh!
There is a website out there, by a russian photographer and motorbiker named "Elena".

You are very welcome for the laugh

I've read some things on the Net disputing the facts of Elena's trip(s).
Not having been there myself, I can't say yea or nay either way, but it looks like some of her details are suspect.
I'd say she definitely went somewhere around that area and got some very haunting pictures. It breaks the heart when you look at them.

Seems like we are watching the same films, eh? One of the best seafaring films out there.

Yep, one of my all-time favorites. I bought the 3 disc DVD edition for myself and also had one shipped to my father in Chicago. He's been a POB fan for years.






For England, for home, and for the prize!

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I've read some things on the Net disputing the facts of Elena's trip(s).
Thanks for the hint; I googled a bit myself and found this article at Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elena_Filatova, it has further links about the issue, if any other readers would like to read for themselves.

Re M&C: I hate the day I took the DVD home from the library (didn't see it in the cinemas). Now I have to buy all the Aubrey&Maturin books...- well, one down, 19 to go *ggg*.
---
If you've got your memory of the last [film I did], the next time you go, "Is that him?"(R. Crowe)

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Yeah, I should have posted something in support of that.
No worries, you got it covered.

I also started reading the books after I saw the movie (in the theater, whispering questions to my poor father...who was kind enough to whisper the questions back...good thing we were away from any other theater-goers heh heh)
I've got the entire collection, except for "21"

For England, for home, and for the prize!

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Rongelap Atoll was a garden spot not too long after the H-bomb went off there... for some species. Rats and roaches flourish there. (Oddly enough, rats can SENSE ionizing radiation. One of the grad assistants in my Nuclear Science class was originally a Psych major whose undergrad thesis was watching rats through a maze of mirrors - nowadays he'd have been able to use a few of your basic $30 video security cameras - move around when he opened a gamma-ray source in their direction.)

But as you say, humans won't take the radiation dosage that some plants and animals will. Although the likely background radiation after a maximum plausible nuclear exchange would more probably shorten lives after several decades than kill people a few years out. The average lifespan of the human race might drop back down to fifty years or so for a few generations, an outcome equally as likely if the "brown cloud" from China continues to intensify and cross the Pacific toward us, then keep girdling the Earth.

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If you look at Chernobyl today you'll see that they do tourist trips there and some people have moved back and been living there for years.

Even the bombs at Nagasaki and Hiroshima didn't kill everyone, and both places are thriving cities today.

Nuclear bombs are terrible, but the reality is that even a full all out nuclear war wouldn't kill everyone and everything.

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If you look at Chernobyl today you'll see that they do tourist trips there and some people have moved back and been living there for years.


There is limited travel within the zone in general. Visitors are only allowed to follow certain parts and move freely in certain areas.

There is something called "downwind" and "upwind" (look it up), downwind from the reactor, no one lives for miles and miles. Upwind however, there are people living (and never left) and measurements in those areas show little or no radiation pollution.
So that's completely logical and makes perfect sense.

What you fail to know, is that in Scandinavia, thousands of kilometers away, they are still doing something called "feed-down" on reindeer and sheep before slaughter, because the animals STILL contain too much radioactivity, since they eat plants in the fallout-zones from Chernobyl (we are now 30 years on and this is still being done, to keep food at safe radiation levels).

Fallout follow wind-patterns and rain and doesn't settle uniformly.

Also, do not forget that the Soviet-union spent around 300 000 people (spent yes....many of the liquidators are dead now), trying to clean up, evacuate and minimize the catastrophe, in a nuclear war, no such resources will be available, people cannot evacuate or get treatment and things will burn for weeks and even months.

Even the bombs at Nagasaki and Hiroshima didn't kill everyone, and both places are thriving cities today.


First of all, those bombs were air-bursts and they were also inefficient, so most of the bomb material was vaporized and transported up in the atmosphere. So, most of the radiation was transported high and distributed over a larger area. According to what I've read, the area would only have dangerous radiation levels for a few days, most of which it was burning, preventing anyone except the inhabitants of the city to be exposed. Also, by now, most of those isotopes is well within safety levels and cannot be distinguished from normal background radiation.


All things considered, remember that both bombs were very small, they were isolated incidents and they were both air-bursts.

Also, consider all this and take into account that the combined casualty-figures (even though it varies), is in the area of 250 000,- (that is about the same figure as the deaths caused by the 2004 tsunami).

In a real scenario, this would not happen. Soviet plans for London, was multiple bombs, ranging from 250kt to 1 mt, to be detonated both as ground and as air-bursts, that creates a whole other situation. (among them, neutron activation of materials)

Nuclear bombs are terrible, but the reality is that even a full all out nuclear war wouldn't kill everyone and everything.


That is true, something will always survive.
Besides, the main part of deaths in/after a nuclear war, will not be from radiation directly, but rather from famine, starvation and (normally) treatable disease, as well as outbreak of typical disaster diseases (Cholera, typhoid etc).

"Fun fact", they have found that fish in the basin around the Chernobyl plant thrive, even though their radioactive levels should be damaging, the same holds true for plants in the area (this is an important study).

You should rather look up Chelyabinsk-40 and see what long-term life is like, in a polluted environment. (birth-defects, cancers, average lifespan, 40 years, underdevelopment of mental abilities etc).

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QUOTE: "A few years back I did a paper on the real, scientific results of nuclear war"

A paper any educated physicist on the planet would have failed you on.

QUOTE: "At the peak of the arms race (or, obviously, today) the US and Soviet Union, working together, would be incapable of ensuring the death of everyone in Texas."

Even France has enough nuclear weapons to kill everyone in Texas, and they have a fraction of the number US/Russia has.

In the 1960s, the UK government's research found that it would take 1000 nuclear weapons to defeat the USSR, so made that the figure to aim for in nuclear self-armament. In comparison, it would only take 60 nuclear weapons for the USSR to kill everyone in the UK (primary and secondary effects).

To put that in context, Russia currently has about 18,000 nuclear warheads and the US has about 10,000. Not enough to kill everyone in Texas? Not unless everyone in Texas is a cockroach, and that's a pretty mean thing to imply...

I'd be very interested in where you got your data, though.

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C'mon people can't you see that this is a trick statement.

It's actually partly true that all the Nuclear Weapons in the world couldn't kill 'everyone' in Texas.

You've all forgotten that there is one particular Texan who is unable to be destroyed by any weapon or craft known to man.

CHUCK NORRIS!

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Well, well, well. Aren't you the new Albert Einstein?
No, wait. He said "The Third World War will be fought with sticks and stones".
Congrats, my oh so educated high-school paper writing moron, you just made the poor man roll in his grave.

For that matter, why don't you tell us what grade you got on your so-called paper?

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Well, well, well. Aren't you the new Albert Einstein?
No, wait. He said "The Third World War will be fought with sticks and stones".


The moron is you
Einstein said the 'Fourth World War' would be fought with sticks and stones. He didn't know how the third would be fought

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> The contamination from Chernobyl was significantly larger than would have been expected from a nuclear detonation of about 20 kT at ground level, but was comparable in extent to what might result from a “small” nuclear war in which a dozen or so weapons of nominal yield were exploded at altitudes intended to maximize blast damage.

The above quote is from the NAS link someone provided further up in the thread.

And it's laughable that this article, from a group known for being alarmist, at that, should be used to repudiate the original poster. Simply laughable.

THERE ARE STILL PEOPLE LIVING AROUND CHERNOBYL. Lots of 'em.

Does the word "DUh?" mean anything to you?

His point about his "high school paper" is that he HAS made some special effort to examine what is known and not known about such a catastrophic event, and that he's got SOME idea of which he is talking, which is likely a heck of a lot more than that of most of the responders here, pretty much all of whom strike me as people who "know the answer because they can feeeeeeeeel the right answer..."

LOL.

Chernobyl was certainly horrible in HUMAN terms -- as individuals, people around there suffered tremendously -- but in the grand sweep of things -- human life as a whole, human cultures as a whole, it wasn't that big a deal, despite being easily the worst nuclear and/or radiation disaster in the history of mankind.

Its biggest effect was the substantial blow it represented to the USSR, its credibility as economic system, and its eventual breakup. In that, it may even have saved more lives than it cost, since it certainly helped the USSR break up smoothly, bloodlessly, rather than violently.

P.S., Anyone who imagines that Chernobyl says ANYTHING -- literally ANYTHING --about nuclear electric power generation in the West is uterly, abysmally, inexcusably ignorant ***in the extreme*** and has -nothing- worthwhile to contribute to the argument. Not a topic to be covered here, but it's a useful quick-test of the actual understanding of anyone of the issues involved.

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Anyone who imagines that Chernobyl says ANYTHING -- literally ANYTHING --about nuclear electric power generation in the West is uterly, abysmally, inexcusably ignorant ***in the extreme*** and has -nothing- worthwhile to contribute to the argument.
Three-Mile-Island (Harrisburg)1979? Forsmark 2006? Anyone?
In Forsmark, a meltdown was possible but was prevented, because the technicians interpreted the situation correctly (despite having no procedures for this case). In Harrisburg, a partial meltdown (1/3 of the core) occurred, but was contained (the accident was later attributed to largely insufficient procedures, that prevented the technicians from recognising the problem(s) and hindered them to react correctly). So it's not like it could not happen "here"...
--
"I was born to speak all mirth and no matters."

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Just saw this movie and rather enjoyed it. I've also read this rather interesting thread. Sorry folks. I know I'll get bashed to death, but I just have to jump into this one.

First of all, I am not a nuclear physicist. But physics was my main concentration in school. And I've made a life long hobby of it. I have a large library. Nuclear physics. Quantum mechanics. High energy particle physics. And so on. So, while not a "professional", I do have significant knowledge on the subject. Actual scientific, factual knowledge. Not alarmist nonsense found on some internet web site. That's one of the interesting things about the internet. With just a little work, you can find absolute proof for any position you want to take. And then turn around and disprove it just as thoroughly. People have a bad habit of believing that anything they read on the internet is the truth. Nope. Kind of like newspapers.

And before I really jump on my soapbox, a slight detour. On the subject of obliterating the entire state of Texas with conventional weapons. Uhhhh. No. Some may recall a small little conflict back in the early 40's. Germany is significantly smaller than Texas and much more densely populated. And we dropped more conventional ordinance on that nation than the entire U.S. Air Force posesses today. For four straight years. While I wasn't around back then to witness events first hand, it does appear that a small number of Germans survived the ordeal. Look how much ordinance was dumped on Omaha Beach prior to the Normandy invasion. Only a small percentage of the defending forces were destroyed. As fearsome as today's military technology is, its silly to think that we have the capability to utterly destroy anything with conventional weapons.

Anyway, on with the show. Radiation is one of the most misunderstood topics there is. The word causes more irrational fear than anything I can think of, including the food in our cafeteria at work. I wonder what the average person would say if they were informed that their own bodies are naturally radioactive? Yes, you are. If you hold a geiger counter, it will always click, no matter where you are. And some of those clicks, come from inside you. A significant component of all animal life on earth is carbon. You can't survive without it. You breath it. You eat it. Every day. 99.9% of the carbon naturally occurring on Earth is Carbon 12. A tenth of a percent is Carbon 13. Like Carbon 12, Carbon 13 is stable. But a small percent is Carbon 14, which is unstable and radioactive. Now that only accounts for one part in a trillion. Which doesn't sound like much. But given there are many trillions of carbon atoms in your body, it makes for a measurable level of Carbon 14 in your body. That's the very basis for carbon dating techniques you hear about all the time. There are several other natural radioisotopes in your body as well. The fact is, radiation is a natural thing. We are surrounded by natural radiation sources. And not necessarily in trivial amounts. Everyone knows about Chernobyl. And while the radiation levels in the areas surrounding Chernobyl are still higher than before the accident, few people know that those radiation levels are lower than the normal background radiation in Denver, Colorado. Everyone knows that Denver is the mile high city. That means thinner air. Which means less protection from solar and cosmic radiation. What's more, the bedrock around Denver contains higher quantities of heavy elements such as Uranium, Thorium and Radium than other parts of the country. Residents in the city of Denver are regularly exposed to natural radiation levels that are much higher than what people in other areas receive. What's funny about this is Denver's cancer rate is lower than the national average. And I've been to Denver several times. Don't recall seeing any people with 4 heads or 6 arms running around. Oh, and did you British folks know that there are significant deposits of heavy elements beneath many areas of Great Britain? Many British citizens are exposed to background radiation levels, and especially radon gas, at much higher levels than the norm. Last I heard, Britain is still alive and kicking.

Is radiation hazardous? Certainly. Can radioactive substances be handled carelessly? No. But it shouldn't be a source of complete irrational fear. It's a natural thing. Think about that the next time you buy a food product that says its "all natural". Radiation is with us every day. And there is distinct scientific evidence that exposure to small doses of radiation is actually good for you. Another aspect of radiation that is rarely considered is that the more radioactive a substance is, the more quickly it decays into more stable elements. That's why even the most pessimistic predictions show radiation following a major nuclear event falling to livable levels within a few weeks. Global extinction due to radiation contamination following a nuclear exchange is a myth, fueled by simple ignorance.

The fact is, in the aftermath of a nuclear war, the affects of panic, lawlessness, breakdown of necessary services, food shortages, etc would cause far more damage than any lingering radiation. We are a soft society, accustomed to our comforts. We like our technology and our toys. We, as a society, would not fare well in the harsh conditions that would exist after a nuclear war.

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While i agree with everything you said ... I wonder if you're still saying the same thing after FUKUSHIMA.

I'm sure you'll probably make a list of excuses and reasons .. but from 7 mile island onwards ... these nuclear mistakes teach us one thing about nuclear power. That is if it can go wrong it will go wrong, and if it involves 'nuclear' when it does go wrong it wont be pretty. I'm sure you'll agree that nothing is prefect and therefore nothing is perfectly safe.

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A few years back I did a paper on the real, scientific results of nuclear war and it just isn't the all-human-life- killing thing that we hear about. At the peak of the arms race (or, obviously, today) the US and Soviet Union, working together, would be incapable of ensuring the death of everyone in Texas.

I hope you got an F. At the height of the arms race the United States and Soviet Union had a combined arsenal of over 65,000 nuclear weapons. For Texas that's one bomb every four square miles.

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He makes a rhetorical point that's actually quite correct, if over-the-top.

His main point, that a nuclear war isn't quite the boogey-man it's been made out to be, is also probably quite correct. Besides Hiroshima and Nagasaki (both of which seem to be doing ok these days) we quite literally nuclear-bombed the crap out of the south pacific and our own western deserts.

You should read the FAS (not known for being conservatives at all) website on nuclear testing, educate yourself some more.

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We quite literally nuclear-bombed the crap out of the south pacific and our own western deserts.


True, but what is your point? Both are deserts, more or less.
Also, the testing was done over many years as isolated detonations, they didn't just detonate 2000 bombs in a 24h period.

The pollution from the testing is unquestionable, there is a reason they were first moved underground and was later banned.

About testing:
- They were "lab-test" settings, to check effects on materials and biology and effects on the enemy, as well as testing efficiency and new weapons-designs.
- In-country US testing, was low-yield weapons, detonated in an isolated area, fallout would mostly settle locally (even though many other states than Nevada did receive damaging fallout).
- The sedan-crater test was responsible for about 7% of all the radiation-pollution from US testing. ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedan_(nuclear_test) ). Crater was considered "safe" after about half a year, no records of what damage it did to residents in the fallout areas.
- Pacific-testing was often high-yield, but also high-altitude-detonations, causing little or no local fallout. That went into the stratosphere and stayed there for years, fizzling out to safe-levels. The exception is castle-bravo, which went horribly wrong, many of the Marshal-islands are still no-go zoned because of the testing done in the Pacific.
- The testing were never real scenarios, no cities were set ablaze and no fires (in terms of cities burning) were out of control.

But you bet they polluted, be it air, ground or under the sea (depth charge nukes and torpedo's).

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Several folks who survived the Hiroshima blast were within 350 yards of ground zero. This means the Hirshima bomb failed to kill everyone within the immediate 1/20th of a square mile. Four square miles is an area 80 times as large, and though today's weapons are much more powerful the average one would still not kill everyone within 4 square miles. The problem is that the extra power of modern weapons is not evenly distributed over a larger blast area, but instead overpulverizes the immediate blast area. Many of the stockpiled weapons relied on imprecise delivery systems as well, which would lead to further overpulverization as some weapons hit the same area twice and other areas were missed completely.

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