What are the odds of one of his own people pulling the trigger?

A Russian civilian? No way. Inside job, by more than one actor, if anything. I'm sure he's paranoid already. There might be big money behind someone else taking over.

Probably 50/50. Which would not be easy to live with if you're Putin. lol...

However, he's done similar things before and gotten away with it, so the Russian people and their leaders might not care about it that much. I think for the most part, Putin is somewhat popular among the people, he is well liked by most.

But after this move, who knows, they've got a lot going against them. World opinion is heavily in Ukraine's favor. Putin and his PR team have done a rather shitty job in this conflict. Also, word is that a lot of people in Russia don't even know they're at war right now. Pretty crazy stuff...

Doubt it.

He's basically Hitler at this point. So the whole "Valkyrie" thing of an inner attempt to take him out is possible.

The key is that the Free World is now going after the money and the stuff. Like everything in the world, everything revolves around money and material possessions. So nothing happens until that is threatened. Now that the oligarchs could lose their money and stuff, things could get real for Putin. They got billions per person. More than enough to take Putin out if they choose to.

From what I read on the internet (highly reliable, I know), he has too many safeguards built in.

Imminently? Low. For one thing, he's difficult to get to. A regular Russian citizen has no chance.

It seems clear that his military generals and inner circle have major concerns. But they're strategic/tactical concerns. They're not ideological differences. Russia's state interests and national security concerns would be exactly the same under any political leader and any system of government. And those folk have benefited enormously under this regime.

Even if you could put a bullet in Putin's head tomorrow morning and magically install a functioning liberal democracy by the afternoon, Russia's underlying attitude towards Ukraine wouldn't change too much. It hasn't in more than five hundred years.

Are the military leadership or the oligarchs as fanatically fond of Ivan Ilyin's philosophical ideas as Putin seems to be? Probably not. But they are counter-revolutionaries. They don't want to change the system of government. They don't want a democratic movement. They don't want the communists back. They've benefited enormously from the status quo, thank you very much.

So -- because it's strategic rather than ideological -- these folk have to do the old cost/benefit analysis. They have to weigh up the potential consequences of removing Putin: political instability inside Russia itself with a potential for civil war. They don't want that. They don't want to find themselves out of power too. And that's the perennial risk with these kinds of personality cult governments: no succession plan.

Over time, if it gets really bad... sure, they may find they have no option. But they'd have to do it in a way that didn't look outwardly chaotic. I suspect his misadventure has speeded up the moment he'll have to hand over the reins rather than the moment he'll get assassinated.

And after he's gone: only the tone and strategy will change, not the realpolitik. And possibly the Ivan Ilyin obsession will be squeezed-out or marginalised.