No Way he Gets an Oscar Nomintion.
I haven't seen Uncut Gems yet, but there's no way the academy nominates him, no matter how much he deserves it. He's viewed to much as a goofball comic who does low brow comedies. Ask Jim Carrey about that. He should have at least two nominations, for Truman Show and Eternal Sunshine...
Even Bill Murray struggled to be taken seriously. It took Lost in Translation for him to be nominated.