Odds of this making 2 bills?
si or yes?
Also has a good chance of beating Avatar.
Could it make 3 billion? Its looking that way.
i don't think $2b can be taken for granted.
a 3 hour running time might push away a few casual movie-goers who might otherwise have seen it.
captain marvel is a rather ho-hum lead-in, as opposed to the genuine enthusiasm people had for black panther.
will china come out at the same level as they did for infinity war?
but i'd still say it has a better than even chance of matching infinity war.
i'll say it has a 60% chance of crossing $2b.
Really? Titanic was 3 hours 14 minutes and it made 2.2 Billion
sharei'm not saying 3 hours is a show-stopper. clearly long running times alone don't mean that a movie won't be a success. as i said above, i think it's more likely than not that endgame will top $2b. but i think there's a non-trivial chance it won't. i gave it 60% odds above. perhaps that's too conservative. all the early signs point to it having an opening at least as big as infinity war, and if it performs basically the same way, then it makes $2b. it has very few headwinds. i'm simply speculating what headwinds could possibly hold it back.
one of those things could be the running time. just the fact of the 3hr rt means that money that might have been made the opening weekend might not be. there will be fewer showings than if the movie had been 2hrs. that might be offset by running screens all day in large centres, but it could take some money off the table.
titanic was 3 hrs, avatar 2hrs 40m. both long, & they are the two top grossing non-adjusted films.
though it's worth noting that both films had enormous multipliers. they ran and ran and ran. that's not the model that endgame is likely to follow. it will almost certainly follow the standard modern blockbuster path - huge opening, standard tail.
I'm going 1000% guaranteed at this point....
and Thats after an extreme amount of research and facts that State Its Very Unlikely Avengers Endgame SHOULD make 2 Billion...
for Avengers Endgame to make 2 Billion +...Its basically Goes against everything, goes against All History of Blockbusters with similar grosses....
A Month ago I would have said 2 Billion is a possibility but I would have probably bet against it...
but now....theres simply too much evidence that suggests Avengers Endgame is going to defy the odds and really do what no Other movie,sequel or franchise have ever done....
1st its becoming clear Avengers Endgame is going to have a Global Opening Over 800 Million +....its going to completely shatter the Biggest Global Debut record....
Theres even some saying a 1 Billion + global opening is possible, although I disagree, IMO it will probably be over 850 M+ though.
simply put if Avengers Endgame has a Global opening over 800 M+(that Literally means It makes 800 M+ in its first 3 days)...Then 2 Billion + is guaranteed.
Next we now have reports that Avengers Endgame has shattered BOTH of Star Wars TFA first day ticket sales records, Breaking the first hour record and Beating TFA's total 1st day ticket sales in Just 6 HOURS....
Avengers endgame beat Infinity War by 3X as much ....
to be completely honest..at this point Avengers Endgame is "Un-Trackable"
these numbers are beyond anything that ever been produced in Box office.
an Opening Weekend Prediction or Tracking is Useless at this point because theres nothing to compare it to...
I think 2 Billion honestly Might be the FLOOR...
This movie has become an Event the likes of which has never been seen.
If this movie is Great....we could be looking at history....Like ALL TIME RECORDS in everything(except domestic, IMO TFA domestic total may never be broken)
It still have to be an at least halfway decent movie, if it sucks then the word of mouth will kill its box office. I haven't seen that much hype around it compared to other movies like Black Panther.
shareyou haven't seen that much hype?
this is based somewhat on my impressions that i've observed, through twitter, movie shows, etc...
but i think there's rarely been a film with as much hype as this one.
it seems to me that infinity war & the force awakens are the only films i've seen with this much pre-release enthusiasm.
and as billbrown has laid out above, it's tracking for the biggest opening ever.
it's broken first day online ticket sales records.
that's not based on my impressions. that last one is a fact.
i think bill makes a strong case.
but i'm still somewhat skeptical that $2b is a floor. only 4 films have crossed that boundary. a lot of things have to align for that to happen. the primary one among them being that the fans are satisfied, & that the film has infinity war-style multipliers after the opening weekend.
but i'm still somewhat skeptical that $2b is a floor. only 4 films have crossed that boundary. a lot of things have to align for that to happen. the primary one among them being that the fans are satisfied, & that the film has infinity war-style multipliers after the opening weekend.
^^^
I completely understand why your skeptical of the "$2b is a floor" statement.
It sound absurd, and If I would have said it or thought it a month ago I would have been more than skeptical too...
but the reason why I have confidence in saying it is, theres no if, ands, or buts about it...IF Avengers Endgame opening to a 800 M + global opening weekend...Its done, 2 Billion Is the least it will make.
its just Math, If it makes 800 M , In Its first 3 days, It could literally have one of the biggest collapse of all time and its still making 2 Billion.
and the facts are, Avengers Endgame is basically guaranteed to have a Global opening over 800 M..
I did not know that Avengers Endgame opened in China the same weekend as it opens domestically.
Infinity War had a 640 M Global Opening and China was not included...It debuted in China weeks later to 200 M
I see almost no possible way Avengers Endgame has a global opening less than 840 Million....its virtually guaranteed with it opening in China.
and that 840 Million Number is Assuming it Performs Identical to Infinity War in all other markets and doesnt Increase in Box office
I think Theres a very good chance Endgame could have Bigger Opening Domestically and In China...
I could see Endgame Opening to 225 to 240 In China and around 260 to 270 Million Domestically.
we could be looking at a 900 M Ish Global Opening...and Its just not mathematical possible for Avengers NOT to top 2 Billion with a 800 to 900 Million + Global Opening.
at this point, The ONLY thing that can stop this thing from Making 2.3 or 2.4 B...Is if Its a Plain AWFUL Movie, which IMO There is ZERO chance of that happening...
2 Billion as a absolute minmium really does sound crazy....
But Avengers endgame is getting ready to have An absolutely Absurd Global Box Office opening that Is going to make 2 Billion a virtual Guarantee...
i think you're likely to be right.
i am probably being a bit conservative, but i don't think that's a bad quality in general. if you expect less, it will be a pleasant surprise when you get more.
if endgame opens to $800m (it will probably do better than that) & then has ultron-style legs (about 2.4 multiplier) it comes in slightly below $2b. that's a crude estimate, since i'm applying the u.s. multiplier to worldwide grosses, but it will function as a crude yardstick.
so though i think you're likely to be right, i still think there's a non-trivial chance that factors (over-hype, length, if the movie genuinely underwhelms) could cause headwinds to push it back.
i said 60% above. that's probably too low. maybe 80% is a better, more informed guess.
Bill...after you stop hyperventilating take a moment to ponder that "first day" and "first hour" sales are being broken all the time. Online ticket-buying is becoming the accepted norm today...much more so than in 2015 with The Force Awakens and even more than last year with Infinity War. Every month there are new reports of "record-breaking presales" and then the opening weekend is invariably NOT a record-breaker.
From THAT you're now saying 2 billion "is the floor"? LOL
Is Endgame going to open huge? Sure. But we've seen many of your "guarantees" get deleted by you when you can see they obviously aren't going to happen just like you deleted your posts from the middle of Opening Weekend stating that Captain Marvel was "guaranteed to beat Wonder Woman's domestic box office"on CM's day 5 when you saw it was already dropping below it's daily numbers. Remeber the editing/deleting you did and then tried to be cute and asked me to reread your posts?
Duplicitous, to say the least.
And you're track record on here is stellar?
sharePoor billb, 2 billion is not the floor, who knows 3 billion could be the floor.
sharePoor billb, 2 billion is not the floor, who knows 3 billion could be the floor.
^^
HUH?
I've never seen a statement Make LESS Sense?
you do know what FLOOR means right?
It Means Thats the LEAST is will make....
I'm sorry but you should be say "Congrats billb"
Because I completely Nailed it a month before the film came out....
and I have No clue where you are going with "3 Billion could be the floor"....
again that Factually doesnt Make sense...Its like you are confusing WORDS....
If anything 3 Billion Is its absolutely MAXIMUM not Floor...
saying 2 Billion is the floor like I did a month ago....
Meant I was 1000% confident This film would make MUCH MORE than 2 Billion and there was no possible way it would fall under 2 B....
I couldnt even remotely say that about 3 B ....not NOW or a month ago
is this really whats its come to now.....You and Queen are so desperate to try and insult me the best you can do is find past statement I made WHERE I turned out to be RIGHT?
lol you seriously just bumped an OLD thread to point out I WAS RIGHT....lol
You and Queen have some serious catching up to do
You guys just cant play My game, You and Queen make so many AWFUL Trolling statements that always turn out wrong, I can then easily go back and BUMP them and Laugh at you....
But it seems You guys are trying to do the same with me and its failing Spectacularly because theres just not Many Things I'm wrong about...
lol the best you could come up with was to BUMP this OLD thread and Point to a statement that I TURNED OUT 100% RIGHT on...
dont you just wish you had a statement from me like this-
1 Billion?
posted 3 months ago by Bubbathegut (5425)
51 replies | jump to latest
What are the chances of this beating WW?
nil or zero?
lolololololololololol
I mean this is what your looking for right?
A statement like this where you can BUMP it and Laugh at how wrong I was?
I'm sorry but You just cant Play my game...
because I'm always going to win...
You and Queen are simply wrong TOO MUCH....
I have a GOLD MINE of Ammunition....
If you ever did find something that I said that turned out wrong and would just TRUMP you by providing 10 FAILS you made to my 1 fail...
In the future, Maybe make sure you understand what WORDS mean before trying to BUMP an old thread to insult someone....
stunningly I think you completely Misunderstood what FLOOR meant and thought it meant MAXIMUM...
had you actually understood this word, You would have save yourself the embarrassment of BUMPING an old thread to point out I WAS RIGHT
truly Epic fail here!
Endgame is the culmination of the Thanos story, what Phases 1-4 have been leading up to.
It is inconceivable that Endgame doesn't hit $2billion.... MINIMUM.
The Russo Brothers and Feige have hit home runs everytime, Winter Soldier, Civil War, Avengers Infinity War and now Endgame.
Having just seen the special 1 minute extra trailer with all new footage, I don't know how ANYONE who is a fan of these movies can claim with a straight face that there is no hype for this movie.
This movie is BULLETPROOF, no matter what ANY critic says, this movie is going to make serious bank.
It won't challenge Avatar, but absolutely guaranteed, it will be #2 to Avatar.
You mean P1-3 , Phase 4 hasn't even strted yet
shareWhat's phase 4? Cosmic entities? I so would love to see the Living Tribunal, Eternity, Death, Beyonders, etc.
Maybe they'll just do the Celestials instead.
Phase 4 most likely will be:
Spider-Man FFH
Black Widow
The Eternals
Shang Chi
Doctor Strange 2
Black Panther 2
GOTG 3
Captain Marvel 2
Avengers 5
And possibly X-Men & FF4 reboot movies , if FF4 or X-Men will be part of Phase 4 we could have villains like Galactus , Kang , Dr.Doom and Magneto .
2 billion, that's for sure.
shareMy guess is $2.3 billion. It beats Titanic but not Avatar.
I think the three-hour time kinda helps it too. Thats a lot of people using the bathroom and missing part of the movie which can end up with them buying another ticket.
Top scientists and myself agree that $2.7b is in range.
stay tuned...
It will absolutely make 2 billion... 3 billion is more of a question... though it should given the amount of people who are in love with this 22 film franchise.
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