Black Panther Certainly has to help....as much as that movie is LOVED, It certainly helps going into IW...
But for me, I just dont know how realistic it is to expect the same audience that Made Black Panther Over Perform, to show back up for IW....
again we saw this exact same thing with Wonder Woman and Justice League.
Wonder Woman drastically Over Performed Domestically...It gained huge Hype and a real Womens Movement got behind the film , Women who ordinarily wouldnt see CBMs came to see WW because they felt it was important and were proud
But this did NOT carry over to JL just 5 months Later even though Wonder Woman was in the film...Women just didnt see JL as the same type of film, Wonder Woman, had the consensus that It was The First "Female" Superhero film, which was Starred and Director by A Female...The audience that found WW Important and were Proud, just didnt feel the same about JL 5 months
IMO the same Will happen with Black Panther....there is an article where a company did a study where 17 to 20% of the tickets sold to BP were from people who had never seen another CBM in theaters before...that Audience was mainly, OLDER African American and WAY Upper class African American who saw the movie only because they felt it was important and because they were proud...
Black Panther Drastically Over Performed Domestically....that over performance can be almost 100% linked back to its Cultural Impact and the NEW Audience that saw BP that wouldnt see other MCU films or CBMs....
BP became a movie that Made Black People Proud, again It kinda got labeled The first "Black Superhero movie"(even though it wasnt)...but it was the first of this scale...to feature A Black Superhero in The Lead Role, Black Actor in The Lead Role, To feature an Almost Full Black Cast, To Take PLace almost entirely in A Black Country and to be Director by a Black Director...simply put, no Movie or CBM can ever replicate what this film meant to A certain portion of the audience...
I just dont see that 17 to 20% carrying over to AIW....
that 17 to 20% of the audiences equals about 160 Million dollars....
thats means its possible that AIW wont get 160 Million dollars worth of Audience that saw Black Panther...
The Audience, The Older African Americans, and WAY upper Class African Americas that saw Black Panther because they thought it was Important for their Culture and because they were Proud....IMO Will not feel the same about AIW, and probably wont even care, AIW is a film you at least need to see SOME of the other MCU films to at least understand...
This audience could care less about A Giant Purple Alien coming to destroy earth...
Its clear hype is building to an almost never before seen scale with AIW ...Black Panthers Incredible Success can only Help, when you have a film has great and loved has BP LEADING in to AIW, Its only a good thing...
but for me, Theres just simply no logically reason to except or think the same audience that Saw BP is going to show up to see AIW...
or at least that 20%....at least 80% of the Audience that Saw BP should show up to see AIW...
The Comic Book Fan base, The General Public, everyone who loved and enjoyed BP should show up for AIW...which is almost 80% of the audience, which is about 500 to 520 Million dollars in Box office...
I'm just arguing that the 20%, the Audience who ONLY saw BP because of its Cultural Impact will not carry over...
I think AIW Will open between 220 to 250 M....
and Will make between 510 to 600 Million Domestically...
also this isnt Just a AIW thing....
I dont think any CBM from any studio can get the audience BP got...Including Black Panther 2....
Not even Black Panther 2 is going to get that 17 to 20% that NEVER saw another comic book movie before back....
they may get some , but BPs Hype and cultural Impact can not be replicated!
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TexasJack (12516)
7 years ago
I think Justice League still had the drag of Batman vs Superman affecting it, despite the boost it got from Wonder Woman. (I can't imagine how poorly it would have done without that boost from Wonder Woman.)
IW doesn't have a millstone like BvS around its neck. All of the MCU films have done well.
Imagine someone new to comic book movies sees WW first. They love it. So they go home and say "hmmm let me check out the movie where WW is introduced" and they watch BvS.
Compared to someone new to comic book movies who sees BP first. They love it. So they go home and watch Civil War. See where I'm going with this?
The BP fan gets to see another great movie that actually has a critical moment in their hero's life where his father is assassinated and BP goes after the killer. The WW fan gets to see a shit movie where their hero was basically just along for the ride. So it seems reasonable to me that the BP fan is much more likely to want to see IW than the WW fan wanted to see JL.
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