I want to point out a couple of other flaws in your argument, or at least a couple other readings from the one's you gave: You say you don't think he could have locked her in the bathroom, changed, then planted all the clues and ended up in the cave, but I think you're missing two very important points from the movie. There was a very long period of time between when he says "I want to show you Tomas's house" and him pushing her into the bathroom. He could have planted the clues before hand, intending to arouse her so she would try to find him, and then discover that he'd been "taken" and have to play the game. He didn't intentionally hurt her I don't think. He either didn't realize that he was hurting her or could have used more force than he intended because of pent up frustration about being lied to (in his eyes) about his adoption and illness as well as her not humoring him and slapping him earlier that morning.
Second point is you mention the cave. I'm assuming you're referring to the part where Laura is running through the surf, thinking that he's gone to the cave and panicking because the tide is coming in. When she looks up, she sees a child in the mouth of the cave. But what you're missing here is that there is a single shot from Carlos's perspective as well: a shot of the mouth of the cave without a child in it. If you go back and watch the scene again it's set up something like this: Laura running and falling, yelling Simon's name, then a shot of the cave with a child in it. Then Carlos grabbing her and saying something like "There's no one there." Then the shot of the empty cave. and a subsequent shot of Laura insisting someone is there and a shot of the cave with the child in it again. So, from Simon's disappearance, they're setting up that Laura is experiencing something different than most other people.
One thing I did initially have a problem with was the doll. I think Bayona intended for both readings (that there are or aren't ghost) to be plausible, but for a while I couldn't explain the doll that she found in her bed and how she could have been expected to discover it if there weren't any ghost. But I just went back and rewatched that scene and noticed something I hadn't noticed before: One of the boards she pulls out from under the seat has her own name on it. The second or third shot after she's removed the cushion, it shows her removing a block and setting it onto of a block that she has already removed; the one she had already removed has her name on it. So I think for me that's the last puzzle piece as far as explaining how there might not be ghosts is concerned. Simon, being a child in a new house with no friends yet, spent his time exploring, as kids are wont to do. He discovered the hiding place for the dolls, recognized his mom's name and assumed she would recognize the doll. I can't say for certain whether or not the doll he takes is supposed to be her doll, but I can say that the doll she finds in the bed is wearing the same color dress as the young Laura that she sees running across the yard after she wishes to have simon back.
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