"There's no guessing"
Yes, it is. Any talk about what happened to a character after the final episode ended is pure guesswork, obviously. It falls into the category of fan theories.
"it's pretty clear if one understands film a bit more."
That's not the way it works. People can have anything happen that they want in works of fiction that they create. It's not a science from which accurate predictions can be made, like with, e.g., electrical theory.
"Chase pretty much confirmed his death several times over the years and even before, when he got a kick out of people not getting it, he said "it's all there!" (to understand what happened)."
It doesn't matter what he said. It only matters what happened in the show itself, and at the point where the show ended, Tony was still alive and well. What happened to Tony after the show ended isn't known because it's not part of the show, obviously, so anyone who says that such and such happened to him is making up their own story, i.e., fan fiction / fan theory. If Chase wants to establish that Tony died after the final episode ended, then he'd have to create another episode of the show and publish it. Even then, it wouldn't change the fact that Tony did not die in the episode of the Sopranos that originally aired on June 10, 2007. No one can change that unless they have a time machine.
"There are plenty of good analysis videos on YouTube that pick every detail apart for those who are still unsure even after all these years."
Fan theories don't establish anything. All that the theorists can do is look at clues from the show, or what they interpret as clues from the show, and then guess about what happened after the show ended. Clues don't establish any particular outcome either, since writers of fiction can use misdirection if they want to. For instance, there were clues suggesting that Tony was going to kill Paulie on the boat, but did he? Obviously not.
Tony is only dead if it's established on the show that he's dead, but that didn't happen because the exact opposite of that happened, i.e., the last person we see as the show ends is Tony, alive and well.
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