.. let's assume Tommy's story is true, and Andy really didn't kill them.
Eve if Tommy's story was true and he was accurate in reporting what Blatch told him, the story by itself did not absolve Andy of the murder.
I've argued here on MC that Andy was never actually cleared by anything seen in this movie. The closest we have to visual evidence to the contrary is when Andy told Red he didn't kill his wife and he didn't kill her lover, but he felt guilty for driving her away. That's the best evidence the film shows us that Andy was innocent, not Tommy's story, but that also doesn't absolve him.
I happen to think Tommy told the truth. One can argue that Tommy made up the story, but Tommy wasn't very bright, and I doubt he could have come up with that story and relayed it so consistently, but it's just as likely or even more so that Elmo Blatch was the one telling wild stories and not Tommy. So for argument's sake, let's say Tommy told the truth.
Tommy said Blatch was a big mouth always bragging about his robberies, murders, and female conquests, the kind of guy who liked to be the center of attention. What if Elmo read about the murder of Andy's wife and lover and it fascinated him? That is a salacious story for sure and I'm sure a story like that would get a lot of headlines. Blatch could have fantasized that he was the one who broke in and killed them, and maybe even started believing that story after telling and retelling it to anyone who would listen (like Tommy) for 20 years.
The prosecutor had a good point - the murderer emptied the revolver and reloaded to put one more shot in each. Why would Blatch do this? That certainly was personal, and even if Blatch knew the golf pro enough to dislike him enough to put a personal round into him, why do that to his mistress? Really, only Andy would have had the motive to put a single round into his cheating wife and the guy she was porking.
Tommy also said that Blatch was a nervous dude - a fart would cause him to jump. He doesn't sound like the type to first kill two people and then reload to put a single extra round in each victim like a cool Russian assassin. From what we know and saw about him, he probably would have fired the gun wildly and ran.
But, for me, it matters not. Andy didn't escape Shawshank after 20 weeks, he escaped after 20 years. Either way, he did his time.
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