MovieChat Forums > Blue Beetle (2023) Discussion > Will Hillary affect the Box Office?

Will Hillary affect the Box Office?

posted a year ago by VinceD (9907)
13 replies | jump to latest

Hillary is, according to news reports, about to tear through SoCal.

SoCal has a very large Hispanic/Latino population, which is a key demographic to this film.

SoCal, especially Los Angeles, is one of the most important markets for movies in the U.S., given its large population, concentration of theaters, and the fact that it's the entertainment capital of the country. The performance of movies in the Los Angeles market can often be a bellwether for their overall success.

I'm thinking people are going to stay home and out of the theaters this weekend in LA/SoCal.

This could negatively effect the box office, HOWEVER.

I live in LA and wasn't planning to see this anyways, so who knows.

I will say, if this pulls good money opening weekend, it would've made even more without Hillary.

[–] VinceD (9907) a year ago

After thinking about this some more, given the storm's impact, I'm estimating a significant reduction somewhere around 65-80% in the expected sales from the LA market opening weekend.

The LA market usually accounts for between 5% to 10% of the nationwide box office for major releases. Given the Hispanic/Latino demographic in California, I'm going to speculate this number would be closer to 11% for Blue Beetle.

I'm going to speculate that Blue Beetle will take a 8.25% drop in nationwide box office sales due to the storm's impact on the Los Angeles market.

[–] VinceD (9907) a year ago

The numbers are in.

Blue Beetle made $25.4 million opening weekend. It was originally predicted to pull in $33 million, then expectations were lowered to $27-30 million.

$25.4 million was enough for Blue Beetle to open at number 1, but it was still lower than the even the lowest expectation of $27 million, and significantly lower than $33 million.

How much of this was due to the Hurricane/Storm is debatable, however $25.4 million is actually even lower than the 8.25% drop I predicted above, so I think it's fair to say the storm played a significant impact in the films ticket sales.

https://www.cbsnews.com/atlanta/news/blue-beetle-unseats-barbie-from-the-top-of-the-us-box-office/

I just wonder what the studio's will take away from this.

Historically, Hollywood has shown a tendency to attribute the underperformance of films featuring non-white leads to this idea that the average US movie goer is not as willing to go see a film unless the main star is white, rather than consider other external factors like maybe it was just a crap film nobody wanted to go see.

A good example I can think of is Jackie Chan's 1985 film "The Protector," which fared poorly at the box office; it took over a decade for studios to give Chan another leading role in a U.S. production, mistakenly attributing the failure of The Protector to it having an Asian lead, rather than it being a lousy film with a bad script and even worse directing.

Drawing a parallel with "Blue Beetle," I can't help but wonder if, despite the clear impact of external events like storms on its opening weekend earnings, studios might fall back on old these old biases and hesitate to green-light projects with a largely Mexican-American/Latino cast.

[–] DoctorThirteen (14216) a year ago

' I can't help but wonder if, despite the clear impact of external events like storms on its opening weekend earnings, studios might fall back on old these old biases and hesitate to green-light projects with a largely Mexican-American/Latino cast.'

I hope not. Either way, I don't see Blue Beetle as a character disappearing from DC movies. But yes, he may not get another solo outing.

[–] fc31 (5521) a year ago

From the look of weekend box office it has been going downhill for 3 days, that is not a good sign.

The low opening number could because of the hurricane and Latino cast, but progressively lower numbers could point to the quality of the film.

[–] VinceD (9907) a year ago

And superhero fatigue. The trailer for the film is ok but it looks like so many other superhero films that it’s starting to feel like watching reruns.

[–] Breeze (134) a year ago

It is continually baffling why people continue to repeat things, regardless of their illogic.

. . .Actually, it's not. The past few years have conclusively demonstrated that FAR too many people are incapable of even basic critical thinking.

Ah well.

As far as this particular ridiculous take, consider: "superhero" films are certainly not more prevalent than rom-coms. Or Horror. Or Sci-Fi. Or Action. Or Mystery. Where's this mythical "fatigue" for those genres?

See how that works?

[–] VinceD (9907) a year ago

Those genres typically aren't summer tent-pole movies and very rarely have the budgets that superhero films do.

[–] Breeze (134) a year ago

None of which has Anything to do with what you claimed.

In case you forgot, it was the ridiculous idea of "genre fatigue."

No idea why you're trying to pivot to budget, or positioning. Again: you're Wrong. It will forever be a mystery why people online can't simply accept when this is the case, but: (shrug).

[–] VinceD (9907) a year ago

I'm not trying to pivot to anything. Superhero Fatigue has everything to do with budget.

Since 2008 the budgets on superhero films have continued to increase, this is a factual claim that can be verified with data. (Statista, 2023)

With the increase in production costs, based on the economics of movie production and distribution, studios will need to put more butts in seats to ensure they make a profit.

Superhero fatigue - If audiences are beginning to feel superhero movie fatigue, they are going to be less willing to part with their money in order to see a film (Morning Consultant, 2023), and the studios will have to respond accordingly, possibly by lowering the budgets so they are comparable with the genres you mentioned.

In any case you don't seem to be interested in having a good faith conversation, so this will be my final reply to you.

SOURCES:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/323886/marvel-comics-films-production-costs-box-office-revenue/

https://pro.morningconsult.com/articles/marvel-superhero-film-fatigue

[–] Breeze (134) a year ago

Translation: "I clearly am in the 'incapable of thinking clearly' camp, so I'm gonna blurt one more nonsensical post, then slink away & pretend I have principles."

The reality: no matter how often you babble about "superhero fatigue," you're Wrong. There are genres that have MUCH more saturation, yet you ignore that simple fact. You're actually absurd enough to argue "Those genres typically aren't summer tent-pole movies and very rarely have the budgets. . ." as if Fast & Furious, Dune, Hunger Games, Harry Potter, Mission Impossible, etc, etc, etc Don't Exist.

You're ridiculous. So yes: slink away now. You're making a fool of yourself.

[–] [deleted] a year ago

[deleted]

[–] RipRoss (557) a year ago

WB is officially blaming Hurricane Hilary for this flopping. DC just can’t stop losing.

https://www.cinemablend.com/superheroes/blue-beetle-warner-bros-boss-blames-hurricane-box-office-turnout

[–] fc31 (5521) a year ago

104 mil budget, I am starting to have doubts whether the eventual box office could reach the budget number.