MovieChat Forums > Avengers: Infinity War (2018) Discussion > EDIT: Avengers IW Moved up an entire Wee...

EDIT: Avengers IW Moved up an entire Week-NOw Opens on April 27th

posted 7 years ago by billbrown7071 (3194)
34 replies | jump to latest

If you check my history or know my history, You'll see I'm a huge MCU fan....

But I must say...IMO this is Disastrously Bad News...

This is Stunning...The May 4th release date(Or first week of May Release date) is 1 of 2 of the best release dates of the year, Its A Release date that Marvel Studios has OWNED the last 6 years and Will OWN the next 5 years...

It makes no Earthly sense to move from that Date....

Literally the only possible way I can make sense of this Stunning move is....Marvel Studios must think Avengers IW is awful and is going to get terrible reviews and get terrible reactions....

Marvel Studios has a history of Releasing Films overseas first, almost a week before their US release....this almost always works in their and the films favor When The MCU film gets great reviews Overseas and WOM from overseas starts to spread Stateside....

But for Marvel Studios to pull a move like this, The Only possible reason that makes sense is, They must be thinking Avengers IW is going to Receives A terrible reception and dont want that getting out a week before the film opens Domesticallly....

They must be trying to open the film World Wide and Domestically at the same time so Word doesnt get out that its bad and really hurt its Domestic performance especially its OW....

and I got to be honest, to pull a move like this, It doesnt just suggest Avengers IW is bad...But it suggest Marvel Studios is bracing and preparing for A truly awful reception and Response, They have to be thinking the response is going to be so bad,so negative, Its going to badly,BADLY damage Hype for Opening Weekend domestically ...and for that to happen, The film has to get like BvS or JL type of a response...

This is just horrible news....

The Avengers is my favorite CBM of all time....Avengers IW is my most anticipated movie of all time....I'm like devastated....

Theres just no GOOD reason for why Marvel Studios would move from the Best release date of the year and a date they CLEARLY love and covet....The ONLY possible reason has to be they are Extremely worried, No Convinced the film is going to get a Terrible response, and dont want it opening overseas a week early and let all the awful reviews get out....

This is bad!

I prey I'm wrong....

does anyone else who understands box office have any thoughts on this and Why Marvel Studios would pull this Stunning move?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ok....

I'm officially Backing off that theres any chance AIW Will be bad...

https://www.comicbookmovie.com/avengers/avengers_infinity_war/avengers-infinity-war-fan-screening-set-to-take-place-in-the-united-kingdom-on-sunday-april-8-a159091

News just broke that Disney/MS is holding a fan screening almost 3 weeks in advance...this is EXACTLY what they did with Avengers 1....Marvel Studios held fans screening 3 weeks in advance, which resulted in INSANE word of mouth, then reviews hit, culminating in HYPE going through the roof and 207 M OW...

there is just ZERO chance Marvel Studios would be holding Fan Screening 3 weeks before the film opens if they werent ULTRA confident...

this to me, tells me they believe Fans and Audiences are absolutely going to LOVE AIW ....and want to take the same approach as Avengers 1 and Let Word of Mouth start getting out....

If Marvel Studios were worried or not confident in any way as I said above in my post, They would be waiting until the last possible minute to do a fan screening, it would literally be like in the last week or NOT at all

IMO this either means Avengers IW is Good.....Or Marvel Studios REALLY believes it is good....

[–] Duck6 (425) 7 years ago

It's very clear to me that they want to distance the date from the Solo release later in the same Month because they don't want this to potential compete with that movie since people are very apprehensive about it.

[–] [deleted] 7 years ago

well, it's possible you're right.
but to me, the most likely reason they would movie it is to prevent solo and avengers from cannibalizing each other's sales.
i found it odd that disney would have two large-scale films opening in the same month. granted, there was three weeks or so between the release dates, but even with that buffer, disney would almost certainly be taking some money off the table by having two of their films released close together.
four weeks gives the avengers more breathing room.

and of course there's that deadpool movie in the mix as well.

given how cluttered that month is for major releases, i don't think it's shocking someone caved.
i bit like a game of chicken, i'd imagine.

[–] billbrown7071 (3194) 7 years ago

the most likely reason they would movie it is to prevent solo and avengers from cannibalizing each other's sales.
i found it odd that disney would have two large-scale films opening in the same month.

^^^

this absolutely makes sense and something I never thought of...

I would say theres just as good as chance of what you said as what I said...

Still worried, but feel better knowing there is a reasonable alternative other than It being awful

[–] FilmBuff (7263) 7 years ago

I took it to be a combination of a publicity stunt that is generating interest and good will from fans, as well as a chance for the movie to clean up for an extra week. May 4th is already clear because the film was there and no one wanted to compete with it. April 27th is devoid of any challenger as well, so it gives Avengers a 3rd week to itself (May 11th is also lacking a competitor). Since Deadpool and Solo are bound to suck up a large share of ticket sales, that extra week should make a big difference, as folks who might not otherwise watch an Avengers film but want to see a movie that third week might opt for it out of curiosity/ lack of anything better to see.

There's also the argument that piracy is worse than ever, and a week in theaters around the world gives some people stateside the chance to stream the film before it even opens here. Case in point-- I am the most clueless person when it comes to torrents or pirated movies, or any of that, but even I was able to stream Wonder Woman on my TV at home the same week it came out. If I could do it, anyone could.

You COULD be right, but I'd be shocked if Marvel is about to release a critically panned turkey as the culminating centerpiece of a 10-year, 19-film series in which the first 18 all received positive reviews. Marvel has shown so far that the "get it," and I think they are careful. Nothing about the movie suggests to me that Marvel is worried about the critical reception it will receive.

(I sometimes wonder if some films were even watched by anyone at the company before being released, but to this point it's been clear that Marvel has some guy whose job is to watch the finished product and say "that kinda sucked" if need be.)

[–] NorrinRad (5468) 7 years ago

This is something less sinister.

Marvel thought this through and realizes that an International release one week earlier than Domestic would have completely spoiled the Avengers' 4 title mystery. It was too difficult to move the International back a week so they moved the USA release up.

A:IW would have been massively spoiled and would have depressed the opening Domestic box office for A:IW. I also expect pirating to be a huge factor for A:IW and there will be no way for Marvel/Disney to prevent this. The only thing to do was to get it out there with a full release.

Also I think Disney never expected BP to perform like it is and want to ride that momentum by having BP still in theaters with A:IW. BP will benefit by the residual tie-in. If I were Disney I'd keep Thor Ragnarok in theaters even after the Blue-Ray release.

Disney/Marvel has the momentum, the high ground and is creating their own cultural Zeitgeist. The Marvel/Disney brand and their intellectual IP is strong. BP is benefitting from that overseas when the social-political aspects of BP shouldn't really cross-over to international audiences that well.

[–] FilmBuff (7263) 7 years ago

You make some good additional points. I hadn't thought about spoilers, but if the ending is such that even the TITLE of the followup film is a spoiler, then you're right-- it would be nigh unto impossible for any of us Stateside to make it a week without knowing that Avengers 4: Howard the Duck Triumphant is en route.

Also good point about Black Panther. Thor:Ragnarok and Black Panther have both wildly exceeded expectations, and opening a week earlier lets Infinity War ride T'Challa's coattails a bit more easily.

[–] [deleted] 7 years ago

great post.

[–] DracTarashV2 (4493) 7 years ago

This x1000. I find them pushing the release date up to an entire week (looks like mainly in the US) pretty encouraging.

Wanting Infinity War to have some breathing room at (in other words dominate) the box office and not go up against Solo and Deadpool 2 also makes sense to me.

[–] Lady_Leopard17 (222) 7 years ago

Well I truly hope that Avengers IW does get terrible reviews and bombs at the box office bill, it would be instant karma for be a total dick to DC fans for years to have your precious Avengers actually flop at the box office LOL!

It's like I've been saying all along the MCU is beginning to tetter on a narrow ledge and it's just a matter of time before it goes down the same path as the DCU and can no longer produce quality films.

[–] DracTarashV2 (4493) 7 years ago

You’re gonna have to wish really, really hard for that to happen, honey.

Marvel fans mocking DC fans for years? You seem to have a bad memory there. For many years, the latter did some mind-blowing foolish trolling on IMDb and other sites by attacking nearly every franchise out there. Many of them SWORE the reviled BVS - and even the recently failed Justice League - was going to make all Marvel movies and other big franchises look like yesterday’s news. How that work out? LOL
Yes, they went on a rampage on these Marvel boards.

Furthermore, how about publicly humiliating themselves even further by accusing critics of being paid by Disney to bash their precious DC movies? Ah, if only that were one of the few sad examples of DC fans displaying childish behavior like this because of Marvel’s success (oh, but your movies are so mature!). A recent episode that showed DC fanboys being absolutely ludicrous was the camping against Black Panther, in which they stated that they plan to do the same to all upcoming Marvel movies. Let me ask, when was the last time a big group of MCU fans in unison created a campaign designed to give terrible reviews and downvote DCEU movies?

*crickets*

“Pray to god”? Yup ladies and gents, this is the desperation of DC fans (how low). Yet they claim to be in the right. LMAO. What you Lady Leopard wrote is exactly the kind of stuff you have heard nonstop from DC fans for years. For a long time they have been “praying” and wishing Marvel to fail. Now look at where we are now! I can say engaging with the likes of you serves no good purpose. But face it, DC fanboys only brought this to themselves. Infinity War, whether it lives up to the hype or not, will be the furthest thing from a flop. I guarantee it, lady. And if it does get great reviews as well, oh, I expect you and your team to continue your pathetic ass whining. Enjoy this year’s head-turning Aquaman. DC’s sole release this year. XD

[–] NorrinRad (5468) 7 years ago

The Disney detractors, the Marvel bashers and the Cultural protectors will deride any and all thing Marvel/Disney it doesn't matter what the results will be.

If A:IW only makes $1.6 Billion it will be branded a failure.
If A:IW makes less domestically than BP it will be called a failure.
If A:IW only makes $1.9999 Billion it will be called a failure.
If A:IW doesn't win any Oscars or critical recognition it will be called a failure.
If A:IW only gets 95% on RT it will be called a failure.

Descriptions of fatigue, selling out, pandering, pablum, infantile, juvenile, reviewer collusion, moral bankruptcy, money-grabbing, ad infinitum will be leveled at A:IW and the audience in general.

Anything to try to change the narrative to something evil, mean, sinister, manipulative or just plain wrong-minded.

Can Disney and Marvel's actions be judged outside of profit making? Yes.

[–] DracTarashV2 (4493) 7 years ago

And that’s nothing but the truth. They always find any way to discredit Disney and Marvel’s success.

But at the end of the day, real audiences do the talking.

[–] billbrown7071 (3194) 7 years ago

Well I prey to God that Avengers IW does get terrible reviews and bombs at the box office bill, it would be instant karma for be a total dick to DC fans for years to have your precious Avengers actually flop at the box office LOL!

^^^^^^^^^^^

well hate to break it to you...but your prayers wont help....

Theres zero chance Avengers IW flops...It could very well be a bad movie that gets bad reviews, it could be disappointing to MCU fans...

But its literally not possible for Avengers IW to flop...at mimimum Avengers IW is making at least 1 Billion....

It's like I've been saying all along the MCU is beginning to tetter on a narrow ledge and it's just a matter of time before it goes down the same path as the DCU and can no longer produce quality films.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

keys words here is "I've been saying all along"

Meaning you've been saying this for a very long time and its hasnt happened and wont happen anytime soon...

Marvel Studios is a Brand now...simila to Pixar....thats what going 18 and 0 gets you

when you were produce 2 to 3 movies a year for 10 years straight that all are goo to great and all are hits...you build trust, you build a brand...

It Would take 3 or 4 Truly Awful movies in a row, or some kind of awful Harvey Weinstein type conspirac With some directly involved With Marvel for what you are "Hoping and Praying" to Happening

I mean my god, WB produced 3 straight Universally hated film in row straight out of the gate and Wonder Woman still did good....Marvel Studios is Damn safe with 18 straight HIts in the banks

lol at this point its clear your hopes and prayers are going to have to continue until at least after 2022..Marvel Studios just announced 6 release dates for phase 4 films and while no films were announced..5 out of the 6 are no brainers and Will be Massive HIts

Guardians of the Galaxy 3
Doctor Strange 2
Black Panther 2
Ant-Man 3
Avengers 5

are at least 5 of the 6 upcoming movies coming out from 2019 to 2022....lol good luck with your hopes and prayers because your going to literally need GOD himself to suddenly decide to start hating Marvel Studios in order for that slate of films to fail or even under perform

Well I prey to God that Avengers IW does get terrible reviews and bombs at the box office bill, it would be instant karma for be a total dick to DC fans for years to have your precious Avengers actually flop at the box office LOL! "

lol did you know I was a regular on the IMDB boards for 6 years before coming here...^ this statement brought back so many memories for me because DC fans all united in 2014 and claimed the exact same thing

in 2014 When BvS was announced and the slate of DCEU films were announced..DC fans went on the biggest trolling rampage in the history of the internet...and at the center of this rampage was 2 things, 1. BvS would out gross The Avengers....and 2. that This was the end of the MCU.

DC fans claimed(and believed) that All Upcoming MCU films would flop, that now that BvS was coming out and DCEU films were coming out, The MCU films would not be able to compete, and all MCU film would lose to DCEU film, DC fans predicted Marvel Studios would be shut down by the end of 2016 and DC and DCEU would be dominating the genre...for prospective, that means DC fans predicted and expected all these films(Cap 2,GOTG,Age of Ultron,Civil War,Doctor Strange) to flop or at the very least start coming up drastically short at the box office,...

lol basically, DC fans have been predicting the downfall of the MCU since 2014...It didnt go well then, its not going to go well for you and your hopes and prayers either...

instead what you should be saying and what you should be doing is living in reality.....instead of saying"It's like I've been saying all along the MCU is beginning to tetter on a narrow ledge and it's just a matter of time before it goes down the same path as the DCU and can no longer produce quality films."

you should be saying, "I believe its just a matter of time before The DCEU starts going down the same path as the MCU and starts producing qualities films"

[–] billbrown7071 (3194) 7 years ago

lol you are putting your hopes and prayers in the complete your place..which is quite telling..its funny isnt it, youd rather see Marvel Studios fail than have The DCEU succeed!

that perfectly illustrate how desperate you are...you are so anger, so jealous at the success Marvel Studios continues to have, your now at the point where youd rather see them fail than see DC succeed.

but anyways the point, is at this point, giving Marvel Studios history, given the audience theyve build, The brand they've established and given The Guaranteed, Franchise SEQUELS that are coming up next, its just not reasonable to expect or even hope for the down fall of Marvel Studios right now, Marvel Studios is guaranteed to dominate at least until 2022

now It is possible at some point for Marvel Studios to struggle, just not anytime soon, for example, You may want to hold off on your prayers until after 2022, because that is when if Marvel Studios is ever going to struggle, thats when it could happen, Disney just bought the rights to X-Men and Fantastic Four back, now what most likely to happen is, starting in 2022 and beyond Marvel Studios Will start rebooting these franchise and fitting them into the MCU, given Marvel Studios history they will probably due this masterfully with Great success

But there is at least the possibility of failure here, if your ever going to hope and pray, at least here theres a SLIVER of a chance for those Prayers to be answers, Its entire possible, Marvel Studios could mess things about while trying to mix the X-Men and Fantastic Four in with MCU, and by this point, most of Marvel Studios successful franchise will be ending, GOTG,Black Panther,Doctor Strange, Ant-Man Will all be on their final film.

again as you can see Im not trying to be biased here, I'm at least pointing out a scenario where it is possible for the MCU to struggle, I find this scenario unlikely but I'm at least throwing it out there...

But there is a big problem here,I did the same thing in 2014, when DC fans were predicting the downfall of the MCU, I again wasnt biased, I explained to them, its not reasonable to expect the down of Marvel Studios until at least 2018...and then pointed out Marvel Studios upcoming slate which was

Cap 2
GOTG
Age Of Ultron
Ant-Man
Civil War

I pointed out theres just too many Guaranteed HITS here

that if your going to hope for the Downfall of The MCU, it has to be after 2018, when Films like Doctor Strange,Black Panther,Captain Marvel are coming out...I pointed out Marvel Studios could fail or at least struggle with these films....

Of course we now know Marvel Studios Knocked it out of the Park and Now has at least 2 more Guaranteed Franchise With Doctor Strange and Black Panther

But the point is, I too wasnt biased, and suggested it was possible Marvel Studios could struggle after 2018, Well that is now dead, Marvel Studios Will dominate until at least 2022.....

but in 2022, Marvel Studios Will have to start producing new franchise and it will be with X-Men and Fantastic Four, Probably whats going to happen is exactly what happened With BP and Doctor Strange, Marvel Studios will hit out of the park resulting in Their dominance continuing for at least another 5 years into 2027....

but unlike NOW, when you hoping and Praying that GUARANTEED Successes like

Guardians of the Galaxy 3
Doctor Strange 2
Black Panther 2
Ant-Man 3
Avengers 5

Will fail, at least in 2022, Marvel Studios will be starting new franchise in X-Men and Fantastic that May(even as Slight as it is) May disappoint..

anyways, put your prayers into DC....at this point, Its much more likely that DC may finally start producing Quality films like the MCU rather than The MCU producing Non quality films like The DCEU...after all, WB is now on their 3rd set of Bosses running the DCEU and now on their 3rd set of "Tone Changes" for the DCEU films....at some point WBs got to get it right....

[–] billbrown7071 (3194) 7 years ago

PS just want to have one giant Laugh at your "hopes and prayers" again....lololololololol

I just cant imagine the hell your going through and HELL you got coming...think about this...you sitting there hoping + Praying for the MCU to fail and instead all you getting is Unprecedented success...

lol 2017 through to 2022 is just going to be torture for you...

Praying for GOTG2 to fail...instead 870 Million WW
Praying for Spider-Man HC to fail...instead 880 Million WW
Praying for Thor 3 to fail...instead 850 Million WW
Praying for Black Panther to fail...instead 1 Billion + Million WW

Praying for Avengers IW to fail...instead EASILY 1 B +Million WW
Praying for Ant Man + The Wasp to fail .....Instead makes 600 to 750 M

Prayers continue to 2022, where you have to watch---
Guardians of the Galaxy 3 Make between 850 to 1 Billion
Doctor Strange 2 make between 650 to 800 M
Black Panther 2 Makes 1 B+
Ant-Man 3 Makes between 650 to 800 M
Avengers 5 Makes 1 to 1.5 Billion

lol just a brutal and horrible stretch you have coming your way....

[–] [deleted] 7 years ago

[deleted]

[–] Vechtersbaas (550) 7 years ago

Marvel being shit to DC? lol, how? I recall a DC Director, at the premiere of Suicide Squad, shouting ''FUCK MARVEL''.
With applause. Just saying, if anyone is being a sad and bad loser, its DC.

[–] QueenFanUSA (3379) 7 years ago

Bill...it is very possible that your fear is well-placed and if that is the case this will be a rough start of the summer for Disney. Deadpool 2 follows just one week after Solo and with how hard and fast Star Wars has fallen, the prospects are grim. If Avengers is also disappointing...yikes!

At this point, the smart money is on Deadpool 2, Jurassic World and Infinity War as the summer's biggest hits. No one has that high of expectations for Solo and if Infinity War is horrible...well...this will go down as "the summer/year that Deadpool and Jurassic World owned"...just like 2015.

[–] billbrown7071 (3194) 7 years ago

god your ODD obsession with Disney is creepy.

everything you said is just wrong and delusional....

Avengers IW could literally be the worst movie of all time and its still doing 1 B +

its impossible for Deadpool to make 1 Billion given thats it R rated....

So right off that Bat, there goes your "Deadpool beats IW/Disney" trolling...

Next Solo could very well Under perform but Its not making less than 500 M WW though, that would definitely be a disappointment though

Next Jurassic World, Will not Beat IW(If IW is even just decent)...If you look at the history of Films making 1.5 B or more....

their sequels NEVER make that much...Age Of Ultron, The Last Jedi, Fate Of The Furious....

None had the success their predecessors did..

JW2 Will make between 1.2 to 1.4 B...which Will either be the same as IW or less(If JW2 is awful) it could make even less

at this point, theres not 1 damn thing you said in your ODD Disney Obsessed post thats true.

Avengers IW Will dominate if its good, If its Bad, Its still guaranteed to make 1 Billion +

lol Disneys Looking at Guaranteed Back to back 1 Billion dollar MCU films and somehow you have the Absurdity to let "this will be a rough start of the summer for Disney" out of your mouth

the smart money is on Deadpool 2, JW2 and IW as the summer's biggest hits
^

ya and the smart money is also on IW to be the biggest hit out of the 3

Your just not getting it....you cant troll on Disney...

They can have 2 or 3 HUGE FLOPS a year and it still doesnt matter...because they have the 4 biggest and most successful Franchises going in Hollywood right now...No year Will ever be "Grim" or even Disappointing...

The Marvel Cinematic Universe Films(at least 3 a year)
Star Wars(1 a year for the next decade)
Pixar(2 or 3 a year forever)
Live Action Fairtale Remakes(2 a year)

Disney is putting out 10 films a year that all Print Money....If it makes you feel better to troll on the 1 or 2 films a year they put out that dont do well, thats your right but its quite Pointless.

your just going to have to deal With it....Disney is either at the start of or in the middle of An unprecedented Run of Success thats going to continue for a while, like with any studio, no Studios is going to be 100%, Disney Will put out a few films a year that Flop, but those few films Will be out numbered by a 10 to 1 ratio of films that Print money for Disney....

you simply just picked the wrong subject to troll on, actually you may have picked the WORST subject to troll on....Disney,Star Wars and The MCU films(The 3 subjects you troll on most) Will bring you nothing but Pain,Shame and Disappointment almost 10 times a years...

lol SOLO could literally make 400 M WW...completely BOMB and Disney Still wouldnt be looking at a "Grim" start...thats what 2 Back to back Billion dollar MCU film gets you...

heres probably what were looking at...

Black Panther finishes between 1.130 and 1.270 Billion WW

Avengers IW finishes between 1.2 and 1.4 Billion(Is probably damn good)

Solo Finishes between 600 to 700 Million(is average to decent)

Deadpool 2 Finishes between 700 to 750(I think Deadpool 2 is going to have a slight decrease)

Jurassic World Finishes between 1.2 to 1.4 Billion

All in All Great Summer for everyone...NO Grim Fates for anyone.....Well except you...you will of course fail all summer long with your box office predictions and also be deeply upset at the success Disney has, so you summer definitely look grim...

[–] QueenFanUSA (3379) 7 years ago

LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Deadpool 2 will "decrease"?!?!?!?!

Did you actually just say that????

[–] billbrown7071 (3194) 7 years ago

LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Deadpool 2 will "decrease"?!?!?!?!

Did you actually just say that????

^^^

do will really have to do this?

we done it so many times, I say something Box office related...
-------------------------
.Like....500 Million for BP is guaranteed....

you then reply with, did you really just say 500 Million is guaranteed?...good Luck, at this point BP is gonna be lucky to gross AOUs 459 M
-------------------------
Before that it was, BP is now Guaranteed to make more than Wonder Womans domestic total...

You reply with, did you really just claim BP is gonna make more than Wonder Womans 412 M domestic? lol Good luck with that prediction....
------------------------
before that it was, Thor 3 is going to make 300 Million + Domestically....

you reply with, did you just claim Thor 3 is gonna make 300 M domestically? 300 Million for Thor 3 is OFFICIALLY DEAD!
------------------------
lol do we really have to do this again?

yes Queen I said Deadpool 2 will make LESS than Deadpool1...Not a lot less, It will still be a Huge hit, BUT IMO I think its gonna make between 700 to 800 M(Probably closer to 800 M)

just like all the other times, theres nothing crazy about what I'm saying, You only think its crazy because you dont understand box office...

I actually said "500 M Domestically is guaranteed for BP"

I actually said "BP was guaranteed to outgross WWs domestic total"

I actually said "300 M was guaranteed for Thor 3"

and Yes I actually yes "Deadpool 2 Will Decrease"

like ALWAYS...I'll be right and you'll be wrong....I understand box office and you dont...

You MISS by 70 Million dollars while predicting opening Weekends, I nail them...

PS...speaking of films running and Hiding from other films did you hear "Rampage" Ran from Avengers IW...

lol just thought it was funny considering you suggested Disney/Avengers IW should Run from Deadpool 2,,,Yet instead Blockbuster films are running from Disney/Avengers IW

[–] NorrinRad (5468) 7 years ago

lol just thought it was funny considering you suggested Disney/Avengers IW should Run from Deadpool 2,,,Yet instead Blockbuster films are running from Disney/Avengers IW

Time to finger check and edit that last statement even though it is hilariously funny!

[–] billbrown7071 (3194) 7 years ago

[deleted]

[–] NorrinRad (5468) 7 years ago

Laughing with you (I trust) as I edit my reply.

[–] billbrown7071 (3194) 7 years ago

LOLOLOLOLOLOL

Deadpool 2 will "decrease"?!?!?!?!

Did you actually just say that????

http://wegotthiscovered.com/movies/deadpool-2-testing-poorly-audiences/

lol Damn Looks like OLD bill is gonna nail it again

Hell I might Nail it on 2 fronts

I said I believed Deadpool 2 will decrease in box office from Deadpool 1 and I said I believe Deadpool 2 will move dates

If its true that Deadpool 2 is testing this poorly and there a HUGE Problem/Mistake with the story....theres a very good chance Deadpool 2 Will get pushed back for reshoots and of course if Deadpool 2 is Awful, theres Zero chance it makes even close to the Original

It seems Fox made a mistake letting Tim Miller go...I remember when it was announced that Tim Miller and Reynolds had different takes and directions they wanted to go for the sequel and that MILLER was stepping down, I remember thinking that could be a HUGE mistake, But also could not blame Fox for taking Reynolds side...given the success of Deadpool, Keeping Reynolds happy and getting him signed on was the most important thing

I remember reading that Reynolds wanted to go for way more comedy,jokes and raunchy Humor and Miller wanted to Go BIGGER with a bigger story, bigger budget and bigger action sequences...Reynold and Miller couldnt come together, Fox chose Reynolds, Miller Walked

again I cant say its a mistake for Fox to chose Reynolds, not after the success of the first, But it seems the mistake here is not getting MILLER and Reynolds on the same page

as this article points out MILLER was a huge part of the first one, He spent years trying to get it made and crafting the stroy/tone.....Its looking like BOTH Miller and Reynolds needed to be back and on the same page

But there is hope...If test screenings are as bad as reports say...Fox will makes decisions, Theyll delay the movie, Hire some excellent writers to watch the film, figure whats wrong with it and do some rewrites and reshoots...

I LOVED Deadpool, I want Deadpool 2 to be good....

but I do find it funny that It looks Like I'm gonna be right again and your gonna be wrong again queen....

that "Decrease" doesnt seem so ODD now huh?

[–] billbrown7071 (3194) 7 years ago

Ok....

I'm officially Backing off that theres any chance AIW Will be bad...

https://www.comicbookmovie.com/avengers/avengers_infinity_war/avengers-infinity-war-fan-screening-set-to-take-place-in-the-united-kingdom-on-sunday-april-8-a159091

News just broke that Disney/MS is holding a fan screening almost 3 weeks in advance...this is EXACTLY what they did with Avengers 1....Marvel Studios held fans screening 3 weeks in advance, which resulted in INSANE word of mouth, then reviews hit, culminating in HYPE going through the roof and 207 M OW...

there is just ZERO chance Marvel Studios would be holding Fan Screening 3 weeks before the film opens if they werent ULTRA confident...

this to me, tells me they believe Fans and Audiences are absolutely going to LOVE AIW ....and want to take the same approach as Avengers 1 and Let Word of Mouth start getting out....

If Marvel Studios were worried or not confident in any way as I said above in my post, They would be waiting until the last possible minute to do a fan screening, it would literally be like in the last week or NOT at all

IMO this either means Avengers IW is Good.....Or Marvel Studios REALLY believes it is good....

[–] NorrinRad (5468) 7 years ago

Bill it would be rather inconsistent for a company the size of Marvel, with the backing of Disney and the track record of 18 movies to suddenly stumble with their crown jewel the Avengers.

Marvel never expected that BP would perform the way that it has but they did expect for BP to be a success and they did want that success to carry over into A:IW. I don't think that A:IW's marketing suddenly decided to feature Wakanda prominently after BP was in theaters. BP now is acting as the carry-over for box office excess like Avengers 2 was for Iron man 3. Audiences want to see more of BP and they'll get that with A:IW.

I think you might want to rethink your position on A:IW not being able to match and or exceed BP's domestic numbers. Marvel/Disney is pushing every button to solidify A:IW's Comic book event status not just among fans but also for movie fun-seekers.

I remember the DC vs Marvel flame wars regarding the box office potential of Avengers. Even John Campea pooh-poohed the Avengers reaching the $1 Billion magic level.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pl9iqh21OUs

The nay-sayer's and his mantra was that at that time no single Marvel hero's movie even came close to breaking that barrier and that the collective fan base was the same fan base across all of the individual movies. How then could the number of ticket sales increase so significantly? The Avengers did $623 Million domestic and the Marvel fan base has grown since then. I realize repeat views are in that total but the fan base has indeed grown and solidified.

You've got new fans who never saw the Avengers in theaters who want to see A:IW and they are legion.

[–] billbrown7071 (3194) 7 years ago

ya I remember that too, I wasnt watching Campea, But I was reading articles and following box office...and I remember ever single article and Analysts predicted The Dark Knight Rises to be the biggest movie of the summer/year and NONE had The Avengers making 1 B....

as you said the thought was, The Audience had been shown, That Avengers may perform a little better than IM or IM2, Maybe 700 to 750 M, But With 4 MCU films we now had a clear gauge on the Audience....

obviously we know the rest....

Look I completely admit its certainly possible AIW could match or exceed BPs domestic gross....I just feel the its a very small chance, probably less than 10%

I recently read an article where a company did some tracking and found out that between 15-20% of the audience/ticket sold that saw or bought tickets to Black Panther, were from Audiences that not ONLY had never seen another MCU film but had NEVER seen a Comic Book Movie before in theaters....

what that means is, Black Panther got a Large portion of Audience that Avengers IW(and no other Comic book movie) can ever expect to get, the article said this audience mainly were Older African Americans and WAY Upper Class Afraid Americans, who simply saw the movie because they felt it was importantly for their Culture and because they were actually proud.

Avengers IW Will NOT Push those bottom for that Audience...

Next I see almost no possible way Avengers IW can have the Overwhelmingly positive Word of Mouth, Its IMPOSSIBLE for Avengers IW to get a 97% on RT(just will not happen) and I find it almost just as unlikely that AIW Will get An "A+Cinemascore"...which IMO is A MUST if AIW is going to have any chance Matching or exceeding BP domestically...

Black Panther has had Nothing but 40% drops on a 200 Million dollar Opening Weekend, Its almost Crazy to except AIW to do that...

theres just too many things that would have to go WAY RIGHT for AIW to have a chance...I absolutely think AIW will Open HIGHER than Black Panther, I just think after Opening Weekend, AIW Will play like An Above Average comic book movie, have average holds

so right now, I'm saying, AIW has less than a 10% chance to match or succeed BP domestically....If reviews comes out and Avengers IW gets somewhere between 90 to 95%, Then the first Saturday its revealed that AIW got An "A+ Cinemascore", I'll immediately change my prediction to 30%

if Avengers IW receives less than 90% on RT or gets anything less than An A+ cinemascore....I'll change my odds to Literally 0%

Bill it would be rather inconsistent for a company the size of Marvel, with the backing of Disney and the track record of 18 movies to suddenly stumble with their crown jewel the Avengers.

^^^^

I no longer believe they will....I was taken back by Marvel Changing release dates, at first I saw no reason to do this except bad reasons, but another poster quickly pointed out a great reason for Marvel to change dates that I had not thought of, I immediately changed from thinking it was bad to thinking it could be good or bad....

Now I'm 100% convinced, Marvel Studios is Ultra confident in AIW and the changing of release date had 100% to do with giving SOLO a better chance of succeeding...

it was just announced Marvel Studios is doing fans screening 3 weeks early for AIW..this is exactly what they did With Avengers 1, Marvel Studios would not be holding fan screening 3 weeks early unless they were extremely confident reactions were going to be excellent and Word of mouth was going to spread

so I'm 100% admitting I was wrong or at least at this point believe I was wrong in my original post

I think AIW Will be Great, Will be make more World Wide than BP, just not domestically, right now my predictions are-

OW-$210-225 Million
Total Domestic $490-550 Million
World Wide-$1.3 -1.6 Billion(IMO closer to 1.350 B)
RT-somewhere between 82 to 88%
Cinemascore-A- to A
2nd Weekend drop between 55 to 60%(Below 100 Million), but for the rest of its run

[–] billbrown7071 (3194) 7 years ago

it will have 50 to 55% drops

PS...I dont think I'll be alone predicting AIW to make less than Black Panther Domestically....I'll bet money every box office site and analyst predicts the exact same thing, obviously that doesnt mean were correct or its going to happen, but it Will prove people who understand box office, see clear problems/obstacles for AIW matches BPs historic domestic box office run...

again why Main point here is...Its possible, but IMO very unlikely due to SO MANY THINGS would just have to go SO INCREDIBLY RIGHT to have any shot...

You've got new fans who never saw the Avengers in theaters who want to see A:IW and they are legion.

^^^
but you've also clearly got fans that saw Avengers and never came back for any other MCU films given that no MCU film has matched Avengers total gross.

this is not a good point...I'm sorry, but the facts are The Avengers at this point clearly looks to be the peak of not only the MCU but the CBM genre...

basically your saying every single person that saw Avengers 1 Will show back up plus new fans....

and simply put that hasnt happen at any point yet, every fan that showed up for Avengers 1 didnt show up for Age Of Ultron...didnt show up for Civil War...

Maybe if Age of Ultron and Civil War had a consistent similar gross as Avengers 1, If both got close to 600 Million domestic and 1.450 or 1.5 B..then Ya you could make the point, these NEW Fans plus all the odd fans are going add up

but right now theres a clear pattern of Fans not showing up as much for AOU and CW, there is a clear portion of the audience that Saw Avengers 1 that didnt come back to see AOU or CW...

obviously there are New Fans, But right now, I have no idea how much that is or what it could mean, CW was only 2 years ago, certainly The MCU gained A ton of New fans between Avengers 1 and CW, yet CW made 350 M Less than Avengers 1.

I have the opinion right now, that The Avengers is the peak Audience for a CBM....I'm not sure any CBM ever Will match The Avengers 1.5 Billion dollar gross...

I remember back in 2014 on IMDB, there were many thread asking Which Will be the next 1.5 Billion dollar CBM or Which Will upcoming CBM can top The Avengers...

I remember posting and thinking, Age Of Ultron, BvS, Civil War and Justice League part 1(at this time JL was a 2 parter) all at the potential. ..

I expected BOTH AOU and BvS to at least make 1.5 Billion....

but I cant ignore data and results...the truth is...No CBM has really gotten close...AOU made 1.4 B, but had a HUGE decrease domestically....

all 4 of these films had the potential, and for none of them got close...Its made start to have the Opinion, The Avengers is simply The PEAK box office for a CBM...It simply got the most possible audience that a CBM Will ever get across the board....

If AIW doesnt at least make 1.5 B, then that will set my opinion in stone.... that Will be 5 CBM movies that had 1.5 Billion dollar potential yet didnt make it...

there are HIGH POINT in Franchises and Genre's....as Of right now, I have the opinion The Avengers Is the PEAK/High Point in the Comic book movie genre, until proven other wise, I'm not sure its possible for any CBM ever To top The Avengers 1...(or at least in the next 20 years) or maybe ever considering the way streaming is going, Theaters may start really losing business in the next decade

AIW is my final hope...

[–] NorrinRad (5468) 7 years ago

I don't disagree that some casual fans did not return to see AoU and CA:CW but I will also say that competition for seats and eyes was very much more at play and still is in play. Marvel/Disney has built a brand loyalty for the Avengers as an event movie similar to Marvel's Annuals that came out once a year way back in the day for various titles. AoU was indeed a minor disappointment but the numbers were still stellar. CA:CW was still a Cap movie and Cap was still a hard sell both domestic and international regardless of the fan adoration.

BP's success I still state isn't driven solely by Black or POC as the "extra" audience. African Americans or Blacks or PoC don't make up that large of the total potential audience. Within the $623 Million of the Avengers' box office you do have that demographic. For any MCU movie that demographic is already significant. +50% of that demographic isn't driving that success and excess for BP's Box office. But your hard numbers and analysts data points don't lie. I'm just saying that Marvel is playing with a stacked deck and they know it.

A:IW's box office will not be a surprise to analysts but they will clearly be going conservative with their predictions. Marvel/Disney has been nurturing their audience and fans through social media globally and building loyalty stronger than Warner/DC could ever imagine. The only place that the connectivity and build-up has stalled is in Disney's ability to cross pollinate demand across Netflix and Broadcast TV.

Avenger's "awareness" and anticipation is being increased each day prior and Marvel is so confident and playing off of that winning hand by starting the 100 days to Ant-Man and the Wasp and building off of that with the Avengers and neither is in A:IW. Will Ant-Man and the Wasp get a post A:IW boost? Yes but it won't be as significant as Iron Man 3.

Marvel/Disney is reaching beyond Metacritic and Rottentomatoes for their guideposts to Box office maximization.

[–] NorrinRad (5468) 7 years ago

Marketing and social media is a huge driver and predictor. I don't expect A:IW to drive up the ceiling towards $2 Billion but I have no doubt in my mind that right now Marvel is the best studio to be able to build a $2 Billion dollar movie. A:IW's domestic haul will be greater than BP because the theater market can easily support it for this summer.

I am not stating that serial story-telling in the form of Marvel movies are each one a $1 Billion dollar movie and each one a $600 million domestic guarantee. I am stating that they continue to drive up the fan base domestically while creating a demand for the event based cross-over.

Marvel will also be breaking their current stride to do something a bit bolder and they will indeed go small again and stay big (cosmic) at the same time. I agree that Marvel will peak but they won't bottom out. A:IW is not that peak. A +600 Million dollar domestic haul is not the norm but is achievable through building brand loyalty and it won't have to be an artificial "Event" based movie.

[–] FilmBuff (7263) 7 years ago

One thing to keep in mind is that Avengers received stellar critical acclaim (92% on RT) and had massive word of mouth. It was an excellent film, and many fans saw it more than once during its theatrical run. I personally saw it three times, because it was just that good. The third time I was joined by a friend who had never seen a Marvel movie before, and has not seen any since, as far as I know. She was amped up to see it because of what people were saying about it.

Age of Ultron didn't get the acclaim (75% on RT), and word of mouth was along the lines of "it's ok, but not as good as the first one." I watched it once, enjoyed it, but felt no burning need to see it again on a big screen. The casual fans didn't bother with it.

It's going to come down to how good this film is. If it scores in the 90s on Rotten Tomatoes, and people are raving about it, the casual fans will check it out, and the hardcore fans will see it more than once, and it might approach or surpass the numbers of the first film.

[–] billbrown7071 (3194) 7 years ago

I basically agree with everything you said...

I just dont agree that it will equal a domestic Gross that Will match or Succeed Black Panthers...

I do not believe Black Panther Success was 100% or even 50% due to its Cultural impact...Marvel Studios Brand is becoming clear and Growing, I believe BP was going to Gross between 700 to 850 Million regardless, Just Based off The Marvel Brand...

but I do 1000% believe Black Panthers DOMESTIC Gross is Heavily influenced By Black Panthers Cultural Impact...I believe and the data and Marvel Studios history backs me up that....Black Panthers Domestic Gross May have been Raised by 50%+ by its cultural Impact...

if you look at the history of first time solo MCU films, Domestically there is no precedent for them making anything above 330 M...and 330 M is the best case scenario, Usually its in the 200 to 300 Million range

had there been no "Cultural Impact" or Explosion in Hype based on BP's Themes, If Black Panther just played like regular MCU films, I believe Black Panther probably would have been on the high end here, Making close to 300 + domestically given he was in Civil War and given The reviews....

So for me, I cant get around the fact that at least Domestically, Black Panther may have literally made more than 50% MORE as a direct result of Its Cultural Impact...

I know at least 20% of the audience that saw Black Panther, Never seen another CBM before.

I cant ignore these facts when considering AIWs domestic gross...

An Avengers films definitely brings in more of an audience than regular MCU films...but there is again a clear pattern, An Avengers film seems to bring it any thing between 400 to 460 M Million...

that means Avengers IW is either going to have to have A Repeat viewing factor that is on par with With BOTH Avengers 1 and BP(which again to my point means An "A+ cinemascore is a Must)....Or Avengers IW is going to need to find 200 to 260 Million worth of new audiences...Or a Mix of Both

again I'm not denying its possible....I'm just stating Clearly I believe its extremely UNLIKELY

AIW literally has to have BP and Avengers 1 type receptions to have a shot...It has to get over 90 on RT, and has to get the extremely RARE A+ Cinemascore(Given the amount of characters and amount of storylines going on, there will at least be some in the audience that hasnt seen all MCU films, and doesnt understand every character and understand exactly whats going on at all times, which will effect the cinemascore)

IMO both are unlikely, but Id give AIW a better chance getting a 97% on RT than getting a A+ cinemascore....

for me personally, The Cinemascore is everything...if AIW gets an A+.....I Will immediately make thread declaring AIW has a shot at Matching or exceeding BPs domestic Run...but I cant stress enough how unlikely I feel that is, and thats why I'm so sure AIW wont match or exceed BP

BPs domestic run is truly historic...The holds it has consistently had is remarkable, Literally Nothing but 40 to Sub 40% holds every weekend after opening over 200 M...NO OTHER MOVIE has done that

Avengers,Jurassic World,Force Awakens, Last Jedi...None have opened that big and had nothing but 40 to Sub 40% drops...

for me thats 100% on Black Panthers Word of Mouth and from Black Panther continuing to get New Audiences coming to see the film because of its Cultural Impact, people who had not planned to see it, end up going because they keep hearing about it and feel its important

I just see no reasonable way Avengers IW can check either one of these boxes...

again not impossible, Just IMO very unlikely...IMO AIW would need to have X-Factors...

1 is of course is The numbers of characters, this is the biggest CBM of all time With characters from a half dozen other franchises.

But IMO it would need others as well, Maybe Action Sequences or A Climax that Is considered the Best ever, or maybe An All time Great Villain, Maybe Thanos Turns out to be one of the greastest villains ever and The decade of build up, matched with his Incredible role in the film makes Hype and WOM go to another level, Or most likely, The death of key characters, IMO the most likely scenario for AIW getting an X-Factor or Hype like Avengers 1 or BP, Is the possibility of the Death of Cap, Thor, Tony or BW or other KEY characters...if the movie is great and A Key Character Dies in a meaningful way, This could be unprecedented in CBMs and lead to a Huge X-factor

anyways I think were somewhat in agreement...We both agree AIW need to Get Great reviews and have Great reactions to have a chance...

[–] FilmBuff (7263) 7 years ago

I think you're spot on. Black Panther will likely end its run with the 3rd highest domestic gross of any film ever made. It's doubtful that any film will surpass that for some time. Star Wars, part 9 would be the likeliest film to do so, and only if Abrams equals or surpasses what he did with part 7.

For Infinity War to top Black Panther, it's going to have to be an incredibly great film, it's going to have to generate the kind of word of mouth that draws in people who wouldn't otherwise see it, and it's probably going to have to be of interest to Black Panther fans.

That last "must" is the most intriguing to me. Will enough people who saw Black Panther want to see him, and Wakanda and Shuri and the rest, in the followup adventure? It's perhaps a lucky break for Marvel that they seem to have set the all-important third act of the film in Wakanda long before they knew what a hit Black Panther was going to be.