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Female led superhero movies and how Captain Marvel will fare at the box office

posted 6 years ago by DarthRoger (867)
22 replies | jump to latest

Everyone points to the phenomenal success of the DCEU's "Wonder Woman" when debating the pros of a female led CMB. I have a rather different take.

"Wonder Woman" is a golden age comics character. She's nearly as well known as Superman and Batman. There's a natural, built in audience for her, a devoted fan base and it helped that Patty Jenkins did a superb job directing the movie. Due to these key points, I believe that WW is an exception and that the MCU's "Captain Marvel" won't fare so well next year. Most people have only heard of CM since the end of "Avengers: Infinity War," because a majority of audience members were wondering who Nick Fury was alerting with the pager. Since then, there has been some hype, although Marvel has kept a lot about "Captain Marvel" under wraps. There's got to be a reason and it's likely that they realize this movie is a risk.

Now I've heard others wishfully conclude this will be another "Black Panther" type of movie, with massive box office appeal. Again I point out the name recognition factor. Black Panther is better known than Captain Marvel, not just in the MCU but also in the comics. His introduction in "Captain America: Civil War" was a way of introducing him to non-comic fans. Even with an origin movie, I don't believe they will replicate the phenomenal success of BP during the cinematic run of "Captain Marvel."

Understand, I'm not predicting the movie won't make money. The MCU has a track record of getting great stories for their characters and they will have an intriguing story for CM. It's take though won't come close to "Black Panther" and should fall within the range of "Ant-Man and the Wasp" for the box office. It should be interesting to see how critics and observers react. If it does just OK at the box office but not great, I'm betting a lot of people will call out audience members for being misogynistic. This is another reason I think the MCU is keeping this movie so tight, revealing very little.

So why are they doing this? Simple. They've souped this movie up with some feminism. They know that won't play well and the star of the movie (until recently) was quiet vocal about her social views. It's possible that some re-editing might be going on behind the scenes, in order to tone down this type of messaging.

Let's make a comparison, shall we? Juxtapose a "Captain Marvel" movie with a "Black Widow" movie (without any feminist messages, because Natasha isn't that kind of character) and ask yourselves which movie you'd rather see? It's no contest. Natasha/Black Widow has been with the audience for the 20+ movies of the MCU. She's smart, tough, bad-ass but has humanity about her that make her a beloved character. And no one cares that she's a strong female character, they like the person of Black Widow. I'm betting Captain Marvel won't give viewers the same sense of connectivity that they'd get with Black Widow.

We will see come early 2019. I'm sticking by my prediction. "Captain Marvel" will make money but it won't be near the kind of bucks other, better known and less socially conscious MCU movies have made.

[–] furiousstyles (4391) 6 years ago

I actually think it will make close to 850 million all because she's involved in avengers 4

[–] DarthRoger (867) 6 years ago

I don't know, I'm not getting that feeling. It all depends on how well that opening weekend is received and how the star ends up being received by the fans.

[–] FilmBuff (7263) 6 years ago

food for thought:

https://www.thewrap.com/captain-marvel-edges-out-avengers-endgame-as-imdbs-most-anticipated-movies-of-2019-photos/

[–] Fonz (638) 6 years ago

I think that sounds bout right. It got a lot of hype when they released a teaser trailer. I’m sure the closer we get to March it will get more hype.

[–] furiousstyles (4391) 6 years ago

Yes my thoughts exactly , she's supposed to take over the lead from iron man, help defeat thanos and with Nick fury paging her at the end of IW, I find captain marvel very intriguing, if it scores very high with the critics, I believe it could tread near a billion dollars

[–] galahadfairlight (414) 6 years ago

Interesting take, but fundamentally flawed.

Heres a movie title for you: Guardians of the Galaxy

People were openly mocking Marvel at the time it was announced, wondering if they had gone mental..... and then they got to hear about a character that only repeated the same line thoughout the entire movie, and it was a talking tree no less!

Turns out Marvel had been planning this shit for quite a while, that the entire Thanos situation involved them deeply......hey, couldn't a Celestial take on Thanos?......Marvel dealt with that conundrum in Volume 2.

Ant-Man and its sequel ( which very nearly beat Justice League total, and certainly made more money because it cost less to make ) are 3rd tier, and they still did the business.

Captain America had the weakest start from the initial three movies (Thor, Cap and Iron Man), ended up nearly topping Iron Man 3 for its third outing.

Its quite obvious that Captain Marvel is an instrumental element to the conclusion for the Thanos story, and those that didnt know who Fury was paging, you can be sure they checked.

Captain Marvel will be bigger than the first WW movie.

Your excuses about WW being a long established character ring hollow when SUPERMAN.........is bested by the second Captain America movie, a character that struggled against Thor and Iron Mans first movies, and then went on to trounce Thor 2 and Iron Man 2.

Thats not even to suggest that the Cap movies are bad, but that first Cap movie really didn't suggest its sequels were going to explode like they did, but that Superman cannot compete.

WW suceeded largely because Zack Snyders miserable world of Superman and Batman didn't permeate through it, and that it was a decent.

If longevity were any kind of barometer, we'd all be on the movie page of the latest The Shadow movie.

[–] Otter (24464) 6 years ago

Correct answer.

At this point, the Marvel brand alone with sell the movie. And if the movie it's good, the combination of the Marvel brand and the fact that everyone actually enjoys the movie will make it hugely successful.

Some of you are really overthinking things.

[–] DarthRoger (867) 6 years ago

I could be overthinking it. It just occurs to me, especially when I talk to other comic book geeks and movie goers I know personally, there doesn't seem to be this big swell for female hero leads. And that's including all the geek girls I know. Most of my female CBM friends want to see a Black Widow movie and they love the idea of characters like Storm and Jean Grey joining the MCU. Silver Sable is another character I hear some clamoring for but not in big circles. Most of my local geek friends LOVE Iron Man and Captain America. Of course, they've grown with those characters through multiple movies and cameos. Captain Marvel may very well end up being a prime character in the MCU, however she's not going to supplant the older, better known and beloved characters overnight.

[–] Fonz (638) 6 years ago

I see what you are saying. You can’t always go by the hardcore comic fans. The casual fans are the ones the bring in the money. Sure I’ve heard the Captain Marvel comics don’t sell well. Casual fans won’t care. They see it’s Marvel, it has Brie Larson in it and a good trailer is all that matters to them. Of course it’s a wait and see but in the end I think it will do very well especially when the time gets closer to March.

[–] DarthRoger (867) 6 years ago

In the end, it will succeed because it's another movie chapter in the MCU. The only question is how successful will it be? That's the game score everyone will watch for, talk about and compare against the other MCU movies. Will it be Ant-man successful or Thor Ragnarok successful?

[–] kuku (3510) 6 years ago

Interesting take, but fundamentally flawed. Heres a movie title for you: Guardians of the Galaxy

Guardians of the Galaxy is hands down the best movie in the Marvel franchise. That was lighting in a bottle.

Of course, critics could sell any average Marvel movie as the Next Great Movie in the franchise because of being politically correct. But... that's exactly what they did with Black Panther. I don't think the same trick will work so well again.

[–] QueenFanUSA (3379) 6 years ago

Agreed

Lots of overestimation going on here. This is going to perform on the lesser end of Marvel origin movies.

[–] galahadfairlight (414) 6 years ago

Really?

You think Captain Marvel is going to perform like The Incredible Hulk and Captain America: The First Avenger?

Not only that, its likely to be well reviewed and you reckon it will do less than Justice League, a poorly reviewed DC movie?

I think your bias is showing again!

[–] NorrinRad (5468) 6 years ago

[–] QueenFanUSA (1499) 3 months ago
Agreed

Lots of overestimation going on here. This is going to perform on the lesser end of Marvel origin movies.

You're not very good at this whole Marvel Box office tea leave reading are you? So why did you think people were OVER estimating when in reality they severely under estimated CM's relative and objective Box Office performance?

Don't like returning to scene of your crimes? Moved on to Shazam no doubt.

[–] McQualude (4231) 6 years ago

The intended audience has been fed a steady diet of crap so they eat this up. All the marvel movies are competently made though some are actually good.

[–] billbrown7071 (3194) 6 years ago

Prediction-

OW-75 to 95 Million

Total Domestic-215 to 255 Million

World Wide-625 to 775 Million

****If Captain Marvel receives above a 90% on RT and THe consensus is The Movie is Great and theres a consensus that Brea Larsen is excellent in The Role....

I could easily see this opening over 100 M and either having or topping Wonder Woman box office numbers....

But If this is just a Good, Middle of The Pack MCU film, I'm expecting my first prediction...

But I could easily see Hype and A Woman's movement really getting behind this film if Reviews are excellent and Larsen is Really great in the role....

Bottom Line...IMO Its A guaranteed Hit, with the absolute floor being 625 Million World Wide

[–] Fonz (638) 6 years ago

Movie comes out right around International Women’s day. It will have the Marvel following and the women’s following because of Brie Larson so it should do very well.

[–] TexasJack (12516) 6 years ago

I completely agree. Marvel really set up the release schedule perfectly from the marketing side, just like they did last year with BP and Infinity War. The unknown is how well Larsen will be received. Gal Gadot nailed the role of WW and has a ton of screen presence and charisma. If the early takes on Larsen are good, I can see CM hitting the top of your range, maybe even a little beyond.

[–] Satan2016 (25572) 6 years ago

Now that I've seen two trailers ...

I doubt there will be any Social Justice message, but light feminist message.
No strong message might cause critics to rate it lower.
It should gross more than Venom ($850m).

[–] DarthRoger (867) 6 years ago

I don't know, Venom is still churning out cash. It's been the surprise hit of 2018. I honestly did not envision Venom breaching more than $500 million at the box office. Nice to be proven wrong. Now Venom has always had a huge comic book fan following and those same fans have been clamoring for seeing him on the big screen since Rami's first Spider-man movie in 2002. Spider-man 3 had a version of Venom but fans didn't seem especially pleased.

Compare Venom's following with Captain Marvel. I just don't see that same, large fan following from comic book geeks. Yeah it will be an MCU movie so it will make money, yet it won't match what Venom is pulling in. My thoughts only.

[–] MovieFan007 (317) 6 years ago

I've heard test screenings for CM didn't went all that well. Then again the person I've heard it from is a huge misogynist and Disney-hater so I'm taking that info with a grain of salt.

After two trailers that were mostly meh or average it's too soon to pass judgement on how well CM will do. Maybe Marvel is hiding all the good stuff for when March gets closer. Maybe (and this seems more logical to me) they didn't open their cards with an over-the-top trailer but instead something that will keep the fans pleased - cause let's be honest why "wasting" the hype on CM this early when a few days later A4 trailer will drop and suck in all the hype. We all know that's the thing everyone's waiting and talking about, even if the 2nd CM trailer was better than what we got it would soon be forgotten cause let's be honest nothing can compete with A4 at the moment.

I'm expecting to see CM in A4 2nd trailer, and that will be closer to CM's release date, showing her in action now doesn't make much sense.

[–] SeanMcQueen (0) 6 years ago

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