Zootopia's chances are quite good.
AMPAS usually goes for the "Lion King" of the year, ie. the biggest money maker that was also critically successful (before anyone pipes in, I know back in 1995 there was no Best Animated Feature Oscar). The voters sometimes don't bother seeing the foreign or indie choices at all, and they've been criticized for flippantly dismissing animation as a format for years now.
I think Zootopia is the film they most likely have seen with their kids or grandkids, and it's a quality film (ie. not some Minions gag-reel or scatologic Shrek sequel), so that's what they'll go for. La La Land will fill their traditional Musical cravings this year.
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