20 percent


Niki Lauda says "Every time i race i know I have 20 percent chance to die that day." Isn't that an arbitrary percentage?Because I doubt that 1 in 5 drivers died in every race...

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Niki Lauda says "Every time i race i know I have 20 percent chance to die that day." Isn't that an arbitrary percentage?Because I doubt that 1 in 5 drivers died in every race...

There was a lot of discussion about this when the film came out.
Essentially, the line in the film is misleading: motor racing in those days was very dangerous, but it wasn't that dangerous. I think the general assumption is that Lauda (in the film) was referring to the risk over a career, although if that's the case then a 20% risk is - if anything - a bit on the low side. Sir Jackie Stewart infamously said that anyone continuously racing in the 60s and 70s has a 2 out of 3 chance of dying, and research suggests his estimate was closer with the real figure being around 50/50.

There were however a lot of factors at play. When Formula 1 started in the 50s, there were roughly 2 deaths on average per year, however around half of those were solely due to the Indianapolis 500 which was part of the World drivers Championship in those early days. In the 60s and 70s there were roughly between 1 and 1.5 deaths per year, but that includes drivers killed during testing and practise well as in the actual races.
However to put that into context, it has to be remembered that the there were fewer F1 races in those days: the 1975 season had 14 races and the 1976 season 16. That compares with 21 this year, so the risk per race was considerably higher (although still not 1 in 5). Also, F1 drivers frequently took part in other competitions, which could often be more dangerous than F1: Jim Clarke notoriously died in a Formula 2 race. This additional racing plays a large part in the "50/50" career risk estimate.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-24172885
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Formula_One_fatalities

--
"So I've got bullets, but no gun. That's quite Zen."

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Lauda (in the film) was referring to the risk over a career. That's what i thought too.Only in this way it would make sense.

in the 60s and 70s has a 2 out of 3 chance of dying, and research suggests his estimate was closer with the real figure being around 50/50.
Really? That's crazy...

It's funny i find racing around circles and the watching of it very boring but this movie was good...

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