I read that Black Panther is expected to bring in between $35-40 million this weekend. So far, the film has exceeded the consensus predictions. How close do you think the 35-40 guess will be?
Weekend 1 - original estimate was $120m, upped to $150m, actual $202m
Weekend 2 - estimated $92m, actual $112m
Weekend 3 - estimated $60m, actual $66m
Weekend 4 - estimated $35-40m, actual ???
It's difficult to say whether or not the actuals will be higher than the estimates yet again, since BP will have a big movie opening this weekend so it will probably loose some screens. Judging by the early reviews Wrinkle in Time isn't all that good so maybe this will give BP some push on Sunday.
Off topic Wrinkle in Time looked so uninteresting from the trailers, some will be really happy if it fails because it's produced by Disney. It seems this will be Disney's 2018 dud the same way BFG and Cars 3 were in 2016 and 2017 respectively.
I have no interest in Wrinkle in Time based on that trailer, and won't be surprised if it is something of a flop. Black Panther might well get a boost from the lack of a quality movie to give movie-goers an alternate choice.
shareAvengers didn't hold the top spot for the 4th weekend, so I guess it's safe to say this will be a record for CBM. Do You know about movies in general which holds the record for the longest weekends on number one? I'm saying weekends because an older movie can earn less on Friday simply because a new title has its Thursday earnings counted together with Friday.
Found it http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/weekends/bestranked.htm?page=WKNDSCAT1&sort=conscwknds&order=DESC&p=.htm
The Dark Knight has four consecutive weekends.
Black Panther might match that, depending on audience interest in Wrinkle.
I think E.T. had the longest run as a number 1 movie.
There are 4 wide openings this weekend, so expect BP weekend 4 to be half of 3.
Gringo 2,404
The Hurricane Heist 2,402
Strangers 2 2,464
A Wrinkle in Time 3,980
[deleted]
Im thinking....
projections will come in around 37 to 38 M....
and actual Will be 40 to 42 M
More interested in China this weekend....anything close to or over 50 M Will be great
and actual Will be 40 to 42 MWhich would put BP around $980 Million WW without China, Japan, Russia and far ahead of landofree's juvenile trolling thread. Don't expect a gracious and conciliatory response from that poster.
And without the rest of the international lot... So a billion at the end of this weekend for sure without those China and Russia.
shareAnd without the rest of the international lot... So a billion for sure without those China and Russia.The movie industry should thank Disney/Marvel for plowing new fertile ground for revenue.
Which would put BP around $980 Million WW without China, Japan, Russia and far ahead of landofree's juvenile trolling thread. Don't expect a gracious and conciliatory response from that poster.
^^^
no I think it would put it over 1 Billion without China and the others...
BP is at 931 Now...plus another 40 from domestic this weekend...
thats 971 M....I got to believe Black Panther will gross around 30 Million from all the other remaining overseas markets this weekend...
for example, this weekend when they report BPs overseas gross....I bet it will be close to 80 Million....which will be 45 to 50 from china and 30 Million ish from remaining markets...
Black Panther made 56 Million last weekend from overseas markets, thats not just going to sudden be nothing this weekend, Those should roughly bring in 25 to 30 Million this weekend....
So, BP should bring in a GLOBAL 4th weekend around 120 Million...40 M domestically, 45 to 50 M from China and 25 to 30 Million from all other overseas markets...
So in all reality...If BP did NOT open in China this weekend at all....BP would still pass 1 Billion!
Nope Bill, BP is right now at 940 Million. It won't change your final assertion but will go differently... Easier may I say...
shareMy bad I was wrong about 931.....
So its at 940 as of yesterday...
Which means it will make at least another 40 this weekend domestically....which puts it at 980 M
and If Black Panther DID NOT open in China this weekend at all.....It would still cross 1 Billion this weekend from the remaining overseas markets which should bring in between 25 to 35 M this weekend(given they brought in 56 M last weekend)
So in conclusion, I and others were DEAD on about Black Panther Not needing China when talking to Lando...
Landos entire argument for BP NOT making 1 Billion rested entirely on BP FLOPPING in China....lol and in the end just as WE TRIED telling lando....China was never needed...
lol Lando made this entire thread on a concept that was DESTINED to fail...it did not matter if China Flopped and Literally made only 1 dollar in China, BP was still going to make 1 Billion...
Lando was Looking at Civil War's Box office, and thought It was going to be impossible for BP to make 1 Billion without a HUGE China gross....But he didnt understand BP's Massive Over Performance Domestically Made China's Box office irrelevant....Civil War made 409 M Domestically, BP is going to make 630 M+.....thats at least 220 Million dollars more that CW didnt have...that 220 M made China's gross irrelevant for BP to make 1 Billion....
poor guy
BP is actually at $940 Million WW as of yesterday's totals but it appears to also include the opening numbers for Japan which is ~$4.75 Million. Nonetheless even subtracting Japan BP will be roughly $975 Million or greater with Domestic dollars only.
The Box Office dollars are already being co-mingled with Japan so in order to show that BP w/o China, Russia and Japan; some subtraction has to happen but the point remains. BP doesn't need those three territories to break the back of landofree's silly 'qualified' guarantee. BP will exceed $925 - $975 million full stop as well as probably exceed $1 Billion by EOD Sunday's box office totals.
Too bad this much energy isn't being shared about the movie's narrative itself. There are so many interesting themes.
Wakbi's story is fascinating to me. It seems the forces wanting to move outward from Wakanda were there on two fronts. Wakbi and Nakia wanted to do the same thing but in much different ways.
It's gonna pass 1 billion already saturday, if all markets are included - China will be around 25 million saturday. However, the most interesting imo is domestic, because this is the weekend where SW8 started to lose steam. This weekend shows whether it will project towards a high domestic final number. Avengers 4th weekend was at 36,686,871. It will be interesting to see if BP can beat that or whether it falls short.
I cannot speak of themes or anything, I haven't seen the movie. I just find the BO interesting, because there were so many people who predicted it would fail, or that it would fall quickly after the first weekend, as they claimed the BO was based on the initial hype alone and that it would be extremely front-loaded. Now it will be the 7th domestic all time BO after this weekend. As you said, it will eventually make 1 billion even without China and Japan, it's a given- it needs only 60 million, most of which will be from this weekend alone.
Black Panther is having a 20 to 22 Million Opening day to China....
Pre sales are looking good for tomorrow too...
A 45 to 50 + OW is looking like A done deal for BP....
and a 95 to 100 + total in China is starting to become very likely...
BP is opening just like other debuting MCU films(Doctor Strange,Ant-Man and GOTG) in China, which was expected(at by me) but a lot of other thought it would struggle...
I've have done some research recently, and Mostly "Black" movies or Films that cater to the Black Audiences have struggled in China, I can at least understand why some thought BP might struggle, but everything is pointing to BP performing like other MCU films in China
1 Billion + is Guaranteed by Sunday...
1.1 Billion + overall total is Guaranteed now as well
Looks like it pulled in $23 million on Friday in China, which means something in the neighborhood of $60-70m for its opening weekend there.
shareLooks like it pulled in $23 million on Friday in China, which means something in the neighborhood of $60-70m for its opening weekend there.
^^^
from what I'm reading a 23 million OW means it shoud get about a 45 to 50 Million OW....
but I admit I dont follow box office in China nearly as much as I do domestically...So I could very well be wrong and you may be right
I have no idea, I was only repeating what I'd read in an article about the $23m Friday total. It certainly seems the "China hates black people" theory has been quashed (as if the success of the Fast and the Furious films didn't do that already), and audiences there are into the film.
shareSo it turns out $67 million was the opening weekend take in China, which is just a shade less than Spider-Man:Homecoming earned. SM:HC ended with $116m in China, so one would expect BP to come close to that.
shareyep you were right....
The Stuff I was reading said it was going be in the 45 to 50 Million range because even though presales were better than SMHC, The actual day of sales would be lower due to Spiderman popularity....
I'm expecting a final gross between 100 to 110 M....apparently WOM in China for Black Panther is NOT GOOD and among the lowest for Any MCU film...I guess the Chinese just arent getting the same Cultural impact out of the film...
SMHC also had HUGE drops, But based on BPs WOM and ratings in China...Drops should be huge resulting in a gross slightly less than HC....
but Still A 100 M + result in China for BP is great
but again ...I may be wrong again, BP may top SMHC, I could go by this site for China box office news-https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/678-china-box-office-general-discussion-thread/?page=1754
$41m+ seems likely. By now it’s worth noting with “Black Panther” you just don’t know how it’ll keep exceeding expectations.
The important thing: it has already crossed $1 billion. Bow down!
Well played, that's what it made. Now it's at 562 million (edit: actuals slightly less, 561,697,180). Biased towards saturday like the previous weekends (relative to Avengers, at least).
Estimated at 1.078 billion $ Ww. (actuals: Actuals 1,079,891,584)
It will probably lose 6-7 million of the difference between Avengers and BP this monday, as it will be a regular monday, but it will still be >40 million ahead.
Graph of the performance until now (accumulated)
https://s18.postimg.org/oajun5rwp/BP_vs_A_vs_AAo_U.jpg