I have a feeling this movie could potentially flop. I wouldn't be surprised though if it exceeded people's low expectations. On opening weekend, I could see it grossing as low as 6 million or as high at 12-15 million.
Here are my predictions:
Opening weekend: 9.5 million
Final U.S. total gross: 22 million
I actually think you're a little off(my opinion) based off of what the three lead's past films have made opening weekend boxoffice wise, I would say this could open to a potential 17-25 million
shareAnd I would say that you are insane. At my theater, the projections we were sent for the weekend, which are sent to every theater, show this to be nothing special at all.
shareMe!? Even BoxOfficeMojo is expecting it to pull in around 20 million. This has a few big names attached and it's a comedy, no one thought Ride Along was going to do well and then bam it brought in over 40 million for its opening weekend.
shareAs far as comedies go, it's apples and oranges. Kevin Hart is white hot right now, Ride Along is playing well to all audiences, and not just black audiences, as was probably expected originally. Zac Effron is hit and miss as a box office draw, and I think it's fair to say that the more popular films he's been involved in had little to do with HIM actually being in them. For instance, a Nicolas Sparks movie will make Nicolas Sparks movie money as long as there are attractive people in them. Michael B. Jordan, while a fine actor, is even less of a draw, and this doesn't look like the kind of movie that people that have enjoyed his recent work would actually want to pay to see. We were sent projections for this weekend, which is expected to be incredibly soft due to a combination of the Super Bowl, bad weather, and a lack of films that anyone wants to see, and this thing's only expected to do in the neighborhood of 10-11 million, and that's based on the predictions of the theater companies and even the studios themselves. It may take the weekend, but it'll be in and out of theaters in three weeks and will be lucky if grosses a TOTAL of 25 million. Trust me, this looks like every other movie that it looks like and will perform accordingly.
shareI'll have to guess around 11 million for opening weekend.
share$15 million
shareCheck out my blog for my top 5 predictions this week: http://nathansharp28.tumblr.com
I estimated TAM will draw in about 20 mil, and Labor Day will maybe break top 5, perhaps 10 mil.
You're terrible at this.
"This will do quite poorly...I predict 20 million."
There's a lot of flip-flopping in your write-up, and it just isn't good.
Where is there flip flop? I think it's quite straightforward. And yes, I DO think it will do quite poorly. If you read it correctly and had a sense of critical reading, you would see that I address the fact that TAM has star power (Zac Efron) and it is a romantic comedy, signifying that it SHOULD be opening 30, 30+ this weekend. That said, it's supposed to be quite bad, so it will do poorly considering its attraction in regards to Efron and genre. $20 is a great opening weekend, but poor in terms of what type of movie this is/how popular it should be.
share20 million would actually be a REALLY good weekend for something like this, an R-rated comedy that doesn't seem like it cost much, that actually doesn't have much star power. Efron isn't someone that adults actively make it a point to pay to see, and Jordan and Teller are more critical darlings than anything at this point who have both been in films recently that did fine for the kind of promotion and release that they got. Also, no one seems to know who the movie's aimed at exactly. Prefacing your prediction with what's expected in general of a romantic comedy that people might actually see is just kind of a waste. It would be like if I would have said "I, Frankenstein is coming out, and it's based on a graphic novel, and a lot of those movies have huge stars and open to 100 million, however, no one's ever heard of this one, it doesn't have big stars in it, and no one wants to see it, so it will probably make 10 million", though you probably guessed closer to twenty. Just get to the point and talk about THE movie that you're talking about. Your analysis sounded very high school newspaper-ish.
shareI don't know, I still think my analysis is quite sound. It is a romantic comedy, and romantic comedies generally bring in a lot of money. Females (in general) want to see them with their boyfriends/husbands, and they allow an easy-to-watch movie experience, something which draws in audiences (compared to the more "academic" films). And yes, Efron is a big star, and as I stated in my analysis, will draw in the 18-24 female demographic, which is great for profit because that means they will drag their boyfriends along (which means more money).
Efron and the romantic comedy genre should bring in a lot of money. Yes, it has a low production budget and it will make a great net profit, but this kind of movie should make more than it will. It made roughly $4,000,000 on Friday, so I would say it's projected to make $15 or so, pretty close to my estimation. And yes, that is POOR for this type of movie. Let me quote Ray Subers, from Box Office Mojo:
"Both new releases—That Awkward Moment and Labor Day—are targeted at female audiences that may not be completely consumed by the insanely popular sporting event. Neither movie is poised to really break out, though, and it would be surprising if any title earns over $15 million this weekend.Zac Efron, on the other hand, has a proven track record at the box office... So far, Efron has exclusively headlined three nationwide releases—17 Again, Charlie St. Cloud and The Lucky One. The worst among those was Charlie St. Cloud, which started with $12.4 million on its way to $31.2 million. That Awkward Moment is Efron's first major R-rated movie, though that shouldn't be too much of a deterrent; fans of his from the High School Musical era should be old enough now to buy an R-rated ticket."
And if you'll notice, that is what I've been saying in my own analysis. Efron is a huge box office draw, especially with females, and the romantic comedy should be making far more than this film is. Yes, it will return a profit, but $15-20 for an opening weekend for a major romantic comedy release with Zac Efron should be making far more.
It's not a major release really. A WIDE release, yes, and it will be lucky to end the weekend with 10 million, which is it's approximate cost. It's not losing anyone any money, and it's also not a hit. 20 would have been good and may have brought with it some positive word of mouth, but everyone that's ever going to see this is seeing it this weekend, it'll drop like a rock next week, and will start polluting the $5 bin at Wal Mart by the end of summer. Movies like that, R-rated comedies with no real hook and very confused marketing (seriously, WHO is this for?), generally have their best day on Friday, which is all at night, maybe similar business on Saturday overall, and then a weak Sunday.
I still don't get where people are getting it in their head that Zac Efron has much box office pull. If you take a look at Box Office Mojo, you'll see that that's very much not the case. He's only had a handful of significant successes, and aside from maybe 17 Again, they were successful films that happened to have Zac Efron in them. For instance, High School Musical was just the High School Musical MACHINE, Lorax was animated and had a half a million stars in it, New Year's Eve had the OTHER half a million stars in it, and Licky One was the Nicolas Sparks movie of that particular year. I hear he's been a part of some finer small films, of which I've seen a couple, but those barely got released and certainly weren't seen by what you would consider a typical Zac Efron fan.
Ok, fair enough. I admit when I'm wrong, and that was the entire point of my post: a prediction, not a fact. I may have overestimated the value of Efron, and 20 mil may have even a bit of an overestimate. Still, I believe my points were valid. This should have been bigger than it is. A $12 mil opening weekend is nothing to brag about, even if it was made on a small budget. It was released in a lot of theatres and should have made more money. I admit that 20 may have been a stretch; I see that now, and I agree with you. But with that said, I still think this movie should have done better. I think the poor word of mouth effected it poorly.
shareThis pile of sh!te has some of the worst reviews ive ever read. I am actually embarassed for imogen to be appearing in this crud.
share"Efron is a huge box office draw, especially with females"
Well, the box office is in, so that argument is over. But I can't let this statement pass without response. I am a big Efron fan, so I'm not one of the haters trying to demean him. But he is not a big box office draw. Some of his movies make money because they are successful movies, and some can't even find a distributor because they are unappealing to a mass market or have other problems.
Efron is a talented comedic and dramatic actor, and I believe that he will eventually be a star, a la Christian Bale (who also started out in a Disney musical). But right now he can't carry a movie to box office glory by himself.
20 million a "poor opening"?? No no. 20 million would be a FANTASTIC opening for a movie like this. Star power? Not really. Miles Teller and Michael B. Jordan are "up and comers". Zac Efron is a star, yes, but not many movie stars can get a 20 million dollar opening on name alone. He's not a proven box office success. His fans are still mostly "High School Musical" leftovers...girls who are no longer age 12, but are now 18-24.
His last 4 movies have all been independent films (Parkland, At Any Price, The Paperboy, Liberal Arts), and all only opened in limited releases. None of them made even a million dollars.
His last wide release was almost 2 years ago when he did The Lucky One, which did quite well, pulling in 22 million (oh wait, I guess that's a poor opening by your standards right lol), and ended up grossing a pretty good 60.4 million domestically. He was the top billed actor. However, the success was mainly attributed to Nicholas Sparks rather than Zac Efron. It was known as "another Nicholas Sparks movie" rather than a Zac Efron movie.
Before that, his previous vehicle movie was "Charlie St. Cloud", which had a very mediocre performance at the box office. It opened to a so-so 12.3 million on its first weekend, and ended up grossing 31.1 million altogether. It had a modest run at the box office, but hardly anything that would describe him as bankable.
Point being, he's not a proven box office success. Having Efron as the lead in your movie does not guarantee the seats will be filled at the theater.
And romantic comedies sometimes pull in good money. For every romantic comedy hit there is, there are probably 5 other flops. How many Jennifer Aniston, Jennifer Lopez, Reese Witherspoon, Kate Hudson, Drew Barrymore, etc. romantic comedies have come and gone at the box office in the last 10 years and have flopped hard? So many. Sure, sometimes they'll have a hit, but many times they flop.
So back on topic to That Awkward moment. Considering this movie was made on an 8 million dollar budget...I repeat, a MERE 8 million...a 20 million dollar opening weekend for this would be amazing. It would make back twice it's budget in a single weekend! It would be a major success. Especially in January/early February, which is known to be a very slow time for business at the movies.
Anyway, it won't make 20 million. The Friday estimates are in and it came in second place, pulling in 3.9 million on opening day. It's headed toward a 10-12 million dollar opening weekend, on par with box office expectations. Still a decent opening considering its budget, but hardly an impact.
Didn't even make 4 Million yesterday I would say 10 to 11 Million is the best guess now.
shareAlso add in the millions spent to market and distribute this movie. Probably at least $20+ million because I felt like i was seeing everywhere for a minute. I am sure they thought Jordan or Teller and their movies, Fruitvale and the Spectacular Now might get some Oscar or award love that would translate into box office, not to mention Efron. Unfortunately, most people in the general audiences don't know those movies. And those that do would not be caught dead watching this movie.
share"How many Jennifer Aniston, Jennifer Lopez, Reese Witherspoon, Kate Hudson, Drew Barrymore, etc. romantic comedies have come and gone at the box office in the last 10 years and have flopped hard?"
And note, all those leads are female. TAM has been called "a chick flick for guys," a completely untested format for a rom-com. The box office is in; it was a weak weekend, but TAM was still soft, getting run over by movies left over from previous weeks.
I'm glad it was filmed for a small budget. The investors will get their money back, and that's important.
Early weekend estimates:
3rd place, behind Ride Along and Frozen, with 9.01 million.
Interesting. I was off by only 0.5 million from my initial prediction a week ago!
What do you guys think?
It was initially projected to make over 10 million domestically.
shareIt only had an 8 million dollar budget and I'm sure it didn't cost a ton to market so it's not an overwhelming bomb or anything but 9 million is a truly lame opening. I'm not surprised though because the trailers didn't look good and the premise was vague.
shareI wouldn't say it bombed, but it did have a very soft and unimpressive opening. I've seen a lot worse. What's more embarrassing than the number itself though is the fact that it couldn't even beat Ride Along in its third week out, or Frozen, which has been playing for months now. And the numbers those two movies pulled in weren't even that great...eek.
But it didn't flat out bomb, and I'd assume this is the sort of movie that might do a lot better on blu ray/DVD than in theaters. Because of the small budget, the movie will probably make a small profit. But nothing spectacular though...
"the premise was vague"
Ha. The premise was invisible. Three guys bantering constantly about their love problems, spiced with a lot of toilet and penis jokes.