Well of course most people won't catch on - he's not a high-profile actor. At most, people know him as that guy from Avatar or one of his other characters (like in Gettysburg or Tombstone); he's not famous in name recognition alone.
But even if he was, the transformation he's undergone from when he was in his 30's to now is quite impressive and would probably still surprise people. In Manhunter, he was young, fuller-faced, heavier, and had a unruly head of reddish-brown hair. In Avatar (and nowadays), he is old, leaner, more athletic, hallowed-faced, gristled and has shorter haircut with silver/grey hair. He doesn't look young for his age, but he certainly made the best of old age and proved you can still transform your physique later in life.
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