"How many more times will I actually watch this movie before the next format upgrade, or even in my lifetime?".
Beyond 1080p Blu-ray only 4K sourced or film sourced & 4K mastered titles will be real 4K. Analog shot films the negative source of which survives and have a 2K master (like most) can be potentially remastered to 4K, if the source can pull that. Many old negatives will require restoration, but many older films, even if restored, cannot extract so much resolution, because film grades were poorer until some ~30 years ago. The rare 65/70 mm sources are not an issue though.
Of course all "films" shot/sourced digitally at a <4K resolution cannot produce real 4K masters (and thus 4K Blu-rays or Netflix streams), only super-sampled. Even the modern Arri Alexa's sensor is "just" 3.4K, thus its 4K output is slightly super-sampled. The multitude of 2K digitally sourced films would need to be super-sampled
4 times to reach a fake, blown-up 4K resolution, but there is no such need because 4K TVs do the very same thing (upscaling). Hence, if any studio dares to release 2K sourced - 4K blown-up versions they will commit a blatant fraud.
To conclude I estimate that 90-95% of all films ever made (oh, and ~98% of all digitally shot titles) cannot be converted to real, non super-sampled 4K. The very few films (such as Marvel Studios' 2018+ films) that will be shot with Arri's new monster of a camera, the Alexa 65, can be shot at up to 6.5K, but very few films will be able to afford this beast :
http://www.arrirentalgroup.com/alexa65/ Fanboy : a person who does not think while watching.
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