MovieChat Forums > Escape from Alcatraz (1979) Discussion > They could have made it under these circ...

They could have made it under these circumstances

posted 13 years ago by internetnicknamehere-178-30027
5 replies | jump to latest

I've recently watched the Mythbusters documentary on this escape attempt, plus a channel 5 documentary which also involved a slightly different re-enactment of the escape. Having watched the results of both the tests, I now believe it is possible for them to have reached the mainland, but only under certain circumstances. If they had been using a raft like the one seen in the film, they probably wouldn't have made it, especially if they were heading for Angel Island. The channel 5 documentary tried building a similar raft, however the 3 people on it didn't get very far from Angel Island, before the raft punctured, and they had to be rescued. Also the documentary said the current was running out of the Bay at the time of the escape, making it very difficult to reach the island on a raft. If they realised they couldn't get to Angel and instead to tried to ride the current to the Marin Headland, they might have made it, but if they were on the partially submarged raft (like the film), they'd probably be suffering from hyperthermia so much that they wouldn't be able to move if they did reach the shore. This is what happened to escapee John Paul Scott, who swam to the mainland, but was unable to move as his hyperthermia was so bad. If they did reach the shore in this condition, they would probably have been caught as they'd been unable to move.

Conversely, if they'd been using a raft like the one in the Mythbusters documentary, and hadn't been heading for Angel Island, and immediately gone to the Marin Headland by the Golden Gate, they could have made it. The Mythbusters team tried this using a raft where all the occupants were out of the water (unlike the film), and made it to the Marin Headland. However its also possible they were swept out to sea and drowned. I'd say their chances of making it would depend on what kind of raft they used, how well made it was, and where they were headed. Feel free to discuss.

[–] MurderInc2014 13 years ago

It certainly makes for a better story and more interesting if they made it but the fact that nobody ever heard from them again or somehow they blended into soceity as law abiding citizens for the rest of their lives just doesn't seem even remotely plausible. And the raft in Mythbuster was pretty well made, with no obstacles in their way to creating it so i'm not surprised it withstood the test...but the inmates didn't have that luxury so who knows what the quality of raft was that they made - even if it was made with the same materials. Most likely the thing was poorly made...or at least not good enough to withstand the treacherous Bay. certainly possible they could have made it, moved out of the country, lived incognito the rest of their lives...just not very likely.

[–] internetnicknamehere-178-30027 13 years ago

I agree with you, my personal view is that they probably drowned, I just think that it wasn't completely impossible for them to have survived to have escaped, but if they had, it seems likely they would have been caught again, considering they were habitual criminals. You're right that it doesn't seem likely that they survived.

[–] chelseaal 11 years ago

For a long time, I debated if they lived or died, but I think they drowned. Lets have it right, if they HAD survived, they'd have cropped up by now on a talk show, considering they'd be pardoned now, as none were in for murder.

[–] MurderInc2014 10 years ago

I think there is little doubt they perished in the water.They were career criminals. If they made it, they wouldn't have had the resolve to stay legit for very long. They never made it out of the bay.

[–] TorontoJediMaster 10 years ago

Even if they'd made it shore, then what?

There no reports of any cars stolen that night. Nobody reported any clothing stolen from anywhere. They wouldn't have gotten far without a car or civilian clothing.

What's more they were three career criminals who couldn't stay out of jail. If they had gotten clear of San Francisco, how long would it have been before they got arrested for some type of hold-up? (As they would've needed money from somewhere.)