... they risked the whole operation.
In hindsight the risk looks considerable because we know what happened.
But in foresight the risk looked quite small. The river probably fell like that only a couple times in a whole summer; the chances it would fall the very next morning seemed as small as one in a hundred. In fact, in Britain, rivers don't do that at all, so what happened may have been something Warden had never seen before even once, and the risk seemed to him to be close to zero.
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Ah yes---they wanted to get the train too---and for that they risked the whole operation.
Yep, that's the point.
In a way, Warden with his grandiose over-reaching plans was as much of a prisoner of his organization's code of conduct as Saito or Nicholson. Shears even tells him as much at the time where Warden asks to be left behind and Shears refuses to do it.
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