Oh no! He lost the BAFTA :(

No.

You sure?

It's still his to lose! He'll just have to go the Lupita Nyong'o route to the Oscar. She too lost the Globe and the BAFTA.

Ah so he is pretty much a lock then? Thanks for the reassurance, pal!

IMO, that middling Dev Patel won just because he is British 

I also believe he's probably still the frontrunner for the Oscar, but he's definitely more vulnerable for a loss after this. In terms of the main categories, the Supporting Actor race for the Oscar is easily the most volatile. Mahershala won the Critics Choice and the SAG--both good indicators of an Oscars win. But then, of course, you have Dev winning the BAFTA and Aaron winning the Golden Globe. Of course, Aaron isn't even nominated for the Oscar, which makes this particularly more interesting. Of the four "major" awards presented so far (i.e., Critics Choice, SAG, Golden Globe, BAFTA), there have been three different winners. Dev, Mahershala, and Jeff Bridges seem to be the mainstays in this category this year. But that honestly doesn't mean much. *If* the Oscars are going to go for a "shock" win, it's going to be in this category. Viola Davis is definitely going to win. Emma Stone is almost a certain win. And Casey Affleck, though a bit more uncertain, is going to be the likely winner. If the Oscars want to show a little variety and not be predictable, this is the category where they'll do that. I can honestly see a scenario where they award it to either Dev or Michael Shannon for that true shock win. But even with that said, I still think Mahershala's the frontrunner, even though perhaps a little less so now.

The BAFTAs always reward at least one British actor each year. Patel got the trophy this time around at Ali's expense. No big deal.