Polling guru Nate Silver gives Donald Trump a 66% chance of winning presidential election
https://www.foxnews.com/media/polling-guru-gives-donald-trump-66-chance-winning-presidential-election
Silver's forecast model gives Trump a 65.7% chance to reach 270 electoral votes"
Silver noted that his model adjusts "for whether polls are conducted among registered or likely voters, the presence or absence of [Robert F. Kennedy] Jr., and house effects," and added that his polling averages "weight more reliable polls more heavily."
The data expert wrote that there was still time for Biden to turn things around and suggested the president give the nomination to Vice President Harris or someone else at the Democratic convention. However, he wrote, "Disclaimer: that also might be a terrible idea."
"And he’s really not that far behind," Silver wrote of Biden. "But the race isn’t a toss-up. That's at best a white lie — a convenient fiction that allows everyone to shirk accountability for their forecasts and their decisions."
Silver was acclaimed in 2012 for correctly picking the winner of every state between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney and confidently forecasting an Obama victory. He was bullish on Hillary Clinton in 2016 but cautioned Trump had a reasonable chance.
In 2020, FiveThirtyEight's model gave Biden nearly a 90% chance of winning the presidency on the eve of the election.
Silver said earlier this month that the Democratic Party would have been "better served" if Biden decided not to seek a second term.
"Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%) at 538 yesterday. Dropping out would be a big risk. But there's some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk. Are we there yet? I don't know. But it's more than fair to ask," Silver posted on June 10."
Trump wins this in a landslide by the time November 5th rolls around, barring any shenanigans from the Democrats like the 2020 Election, however, they don't have Covid to use to their advantage this time out nor the all mail in ballot crap