10/4/19 political summary in case you're having trouble keeping pace with warp speed.
Jam packed day. Late last night, my 538 resignation metric dipped below 50%. As of 6 PM EST, I'm inching it back close to even. The day as I’ve seen it:
Fallout from the Volker Hearing, the text messages that Schiff released (great timing) have re-framed the debate and have essentially expanded Trump's guilt not just to the call summary or the whistleblower, but to actual actions taken by him and Giuliani. I think this throws off his messaging completely and has left many very deeply skeptical of him. Trump is well past the point of reasonable doubt. He's guilty as fuck. But more than that, the texts showed us the painful cost of his lies to the country and to the world.
Added Fallout from Attempted Shakedown of Xi - Pelosi made the connection I had hoped many more Dems would've made by now: Trump is screwing over Americans in this trade war to try to get some leverage over the Chinese to extract illegal in-kind campaign contributions. There's a big difference between Trump's racist immigration bashing and when he gets into trouble on Russia matters. The latter does not drive white working class enthusiasm or a desire to back him up.
Trump Presser - The South Lawn shout outs are the most programmed and planned thing Trump does. He has one message he wants to shout and he rarely gets tripped up from giving it, no matter how outrageous and counterproductive the statement may be to normal people. He got tripped up today. Just one simple question from Eamon Javers as to whether he has ever called for an investigation against someone who was not an opponent caught him napping and threw him off rhythm. Then Romney piled on a bit with a statement essentially confirming the Senate GOP's rejection of Trump's view that smearing Biden with foreign dirt is popular. This isn't a sudden burst of conscience and patriotism from the Senate GOP. They just know it's bad politics. Whatever water Biden takes on, Trump and the GOP take on more.
ICIG Atkinson testified for 7+ hours behind closed doors. If it was anything like the Volker hearing it will be another neutron bomb.
A nice surprise, the CIA General Counsel had made a criminal referral to the DOJ. She had concluded that Trump's conduct constituted a violation of Federal law (that's at least 2 criminal referrals off the same incident) and a WSJ article has the CIA wondering aloud why DOJ didn’t take up an investigation. The answer is Barr, but the point is that Barr gets further marginalized and weaker within the DOJ because there is no modicum of objectivity. He's Trump's consigliere, the Dark Lord of the Sith. He's not a legitimate AG. This badly hurts Trump's attempts to use Barr's office and standing to purvey conspiracy theories intended to upend the Mueller findings, absolve Russia, and allow him to lift sanctions, pardon Manafort, and turn the tables on the corruption issue against Democrats. If there are still decent people at the DOJ who have a means to sideline Barr, force his recusal, and either appoint a Special Prosecutor, or simply agree to open investigations and take criminal referrals, this entire government ends soon thereafter.
Dems issue document demand to Mike Pence while Trump has set up Pence perfectly to take the fall. Pence was never questioned by the Special Counsel when he should've been. He's been a witness and possible accomplice to a number of instances of obstruction and other dubious activities, but he never got caught in the web … until now. One article from WAPO and Trump has knifed and hooked him into the net. There’s no way for Pence to deny that he was a critical piece of the extortion scheme against Zelensky. If he refuses to cooperate, he'll have to deal with it in court and will likely lose. His political career is effectively permanently damaged. There's no crime that Trump will get impeached for that Pence isn't also guilty of as it relates to Ukraine. The chance that he ascends to the Presidency without facing criminal charges or impeachment is limited. At best, if Trump were to resign, the GOP might protect him to allow him to become the POTUS, but he wouldn't be able to run for the next term and when he's out of office he'll face charges. Additionally, Trump can blame Pence for all the crimes committed in the extortion scheme and Pence has no legal or constitutional shield to whatever Trump might put out there. That could force his resignation and allow Trump to nominate Ivanka at the convention while the Veep slot stays vacant, forcing the GOP to protect Trump, lest Pelosi become President. Now, Mikey could get smart, grasp that he's hosed, and cooperate with Schiff for an immunity deal. He confesses to everything, provides the dirt on everyone and resigns.
That OLC memo that protects the president from criminal indictment while in office is a bitch for Pence, since it simultaneously makes clear the VP enjoys no such protections. It's why Spiro Agnew had to resign in disgrace after being caught accepting bribes.
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